[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 22W from just SE
of the Cabo Verde Islands to 04N. moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N E of 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is noted near 37N from 17N
southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 04N to 10N between 34W and 38W.

A robust tropical wave is crossing from the western Atlantic into
the eastern Caribbean along 62W, mainly just W of the Windward
Islands extending S into eastern Venezuela. This wave is moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
eastern eastern Venezuela through the Windward Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W from 19N into
Honduras, continuing S across Costa Rica, and beginning to emerge
into the eastern Pacific. This wave is moving W at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of Panama and offshore
Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar and extends southwestward to near 12N23W. Convection in the
vicinity of this trough is mainly associated with the tropical
wave described in the section above. An ITCZ continues from
12N23W to near 08N34W, then resumes westward from 06N38W to
05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 60 nm
on both sides of each ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 11N is
causing scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters
near northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is inducing scattered moderate convection in the
south-central Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection has
also developed along and within 90 nm W of a weak surface trough
noted from 22N88W to 28N87W. Otherwise, 1018 mb high pressure
center offshore the Florida Peninsula is dominating much of the
basin, with the ridging leading to light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and seas of less than 2 ft in the eastern Gulf and Florida
Straits. For the western Gulf gentle to moderate mainly SE winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into late
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse nightly
north and west of the Yucatan peninsula through Wed as a diurnal
trough develops and moves offshore. Expect scattered thunderstorms
across the SW Gulf through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with a trough stretching from Colombia to
the Dominican Republic has dissipated early this morning. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above for
additional convection in the Caribbean. For the remainder of the
basin, mainly moderate trades prevail, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The
exceptions are S of 10N in the SW basin and in the Lee of Cuba,
where winds are gentle and seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
central and eastern Caribbean through Wed night with and behind a
tropical wave that is moving west of the Lesser Antilles today.
Expect squalls and scattered thunderstorms to accompany this
tropical wave through tonight. Gentle to moderate trade winds will
prevail elsewhere during the forecast period, while fresh to
strong trades persist across south central portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) of modest thickness covers much of the
tropical Atlantic with its leading edge over Puerto Rico/Virgin
Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Hazy conditions with slightly
reduced visibilities are expected within this layer for the next
couple of days.

An upper level trough extends N from the Dominican Republic to E
of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is noted in association
with this feature, from 22N to 30N between 60W and 74W. Convection
associated with a surface trough along Florida's east coast has
dissipated early this morning. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections above for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.

High pressure of 1027 mb centered E of Bermuda is dominating much
of the subtropical Atlantic. This is leading to light to gentle
winds for all areas N of 23N, except in the far eastern Atlantic
where moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in and near
the Canary Islands. Seas for areas N of 23N are 3 to 5 ft, with 2
ft or less seas occurring in and near the Bahamas, Cuba, and
Florida. To the S of 23N and W of 30W, fresh trades and seas of 5
to 8 ft dominate, while areas to the E, including waters near the
Cabo Verde Islands, having gentle to moderate mainly N winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient and lead to light gentle winds across most
of the area into late week. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail into Thu night, occurring with and behind a tropical wave
moving through the Caribbean.

$$
KONARIK
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