[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 20N southward
across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 15
kt. No significant convection is seen near this feature.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 14N southward
into French Guiana, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is found from 07N to 15N between 48W and 58W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
northern Suriname.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from south of the
Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, and
moving west around 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are found over
Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and northwestern Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is near 90W from the northern Yucatan
Peninsula southward across Guatemala into the East Pacific, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are flaring up from just north of the Yucatan
Channel southward across the Gulf of Honduras to over Honduras
and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
north of Nouakchott, then extends southwestward through 15N21W to
09N26W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough
from 05N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 17W. An
ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 09N26W across 05N35W to
05N47W. No significant convection is noted near the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
southwestern Caribbean waters, near northwest Colombia, Panama
and Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection near the
Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge related to a
1015 mb high at the east-central Gulf continues to dominate the
region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are found at
the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE return flow and 2
to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through early
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of
90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula tonight as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for weather in the basin. Tight gradient between
the Atlantic Ridge near the central Bahamas and the Colombian Low
is causing fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft at
the south-central basin, north of Colombia and northwestern
Venezuela. Gentle E to ESE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are present at
the southwestern basin north of Panama, and near the Cayman
Islands and Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean will increase to between fresh and
strong Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong trade winds over the
south-central waters should decrease some tonight, then increase
again and expand in areal coverage Mon night through Tue night.
Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends northeastward from Hispaniola
across 31N65W to northeast of Bermuda. Divergent winds near and
east of the trough axis are generating scattered moderate
convection from 22N to 29N between 58W and 74W. Another upper-
level trough extending southward from a pronounced upper low near
34N36W is producing isolated thunderstorms north of 28N between
32W and 39W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 30W and the Georgia-Florida
coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE
trades and 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 23N between the northwest
Africa coast and 30W. To the south, gentle NNE trades and seas at
3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate northerly and southerly swells are
seen near the Cabo Verde Islands from 13N to 23N between the
central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N
to 19N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE to
E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate. Light to gentle with
locally moderate southerly and monsoonal southwesterly winds, and
4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will
sustain light to gentle winds across much of the area early this
week. South of 22N, winds will increase to between moderate and
fresh starting Mon, then continue through mid week.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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