[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale winds are no longer expected for the Agadir area of Morocco.
For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 13N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 33W and 37W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands
near 58W from 15N southward into Guyana, and moving westward
around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring near Barbados, the southern Windward Islands and
over Trinidad and Tobago.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from just southwest
of Jamaica southward through central Panama, and moving westward
at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near Providencia
and Andrea, and near the Panama coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 08N30W
to 08N47W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
south of the trough from 08N to 13N between the Guinea
Bissau/Guinea coast and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is
present near the trough from 06N to 09N between 22W and 28W, and
from 05N to 08N between 37W and 46W. There is no ITCZ present
based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another surface
trough meanders northeastward from the Florida Straits across
southern Florida into the western Atlantic. This feature is
producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
north of the Yucatan Channel and over southern Florida, including
the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge stretching
southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico
continues to dominate the region. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will prevail into the
beginning of next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat as the
diurnal trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds
west of the Yucatan Peninsula are expected to become fresh to
locally strong Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough reaches east-northeastward from an upper
low at the Gulf of Honduras through eastern Cuba. Enhanced by
these features, convergent trade winds are generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Cayman Islands,
central and eastern Cuba, and near the Windward Passage. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section at the beginning for additional
weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen at the south- central basin,
and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas are present at the southwestern basin, and between the Cayman
Islands/Jamaica and Cuba/Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh
easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean will increase to between fresh and strong Mon
night into Tue. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central
basin will gradually expand northward through Tue. Gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced upper-level trough runs northward from eastern Cuba
to beyond 31N at 70W. A surface trough reaches northeastward from
27N69W to a 1015 mb low southeast of Bermuda near 31N62W.
Convergent southerly winds feeding toward the trough and low are
interacting with the upper trough to trigger scattered showers
and thunderstorms from 20N to 28N between 62W and the
central/southeast Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather
in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1035 mb Azores
High across 31N33W to near the southeast Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are found south of the low near Bermuda, north of 27N between 55W
and 63W. Otherwise, the ridge is supporting light to gentle winds
and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between 38W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with
locally strong NNE to NE trades and seas at 7 to 10 ft dominate
north of 19N between the Africa coast and 38W. For the tropical
Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are
evident from 08N to 19N/20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin, including near the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 35W, the surface trough/low near Bermuda
will lift north of 31N on Sat. From tonight through the weekend,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W, while light to
gentle winds are anticipated elsewhere. South of 22N, winds will
increase to between moderate and fresh for the first half of next
week.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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