[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312232
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2205 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal
gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia each night through Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12
ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
reaching the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N12W to 00N30W to near the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is present within 100 nm of the ITCZ
between 20W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front continues draped across the NW Gulf of Mexico,
extending from southern Louisiana near 30N92W to Tamaulipas near
24N98W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found behind
the frontal boundary, along with seas of 3-5 ft. A weak high
pressure regime dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico,
sustaining moderate or weaker SE winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

Moist air near the front is the focus for dense fog across the
coastal waters from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The fog will
begin to dissipate this afternoon but will return overnight.

For the forecast, a stationary front from the western Louisiana coast to
just S of the U.S. Mexico border will remain in place into Thu,
before a surge of cold air spills south into the Gulf and the cold
front drags across the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds
can be expected behind the front, with gales Fri offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat
across the basin as high pressure builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and
the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off
NW Colombia. Seas are 6-10 ft in the waters described, with the
highest seas occurring near 11N77W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia through Sat night. These winds will pulse to and gale
force late evening to early morning hours through Thu night.
Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. Moderate to
fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned near the NW Bahamas.
Moderate to locally strong northerly winds are evident south of
26N and between 57W and 73W. Seas are 5-8 ft in these waters.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail in the remaining
waters west of 60W. An elongated surface trough is along 57W,
extending from from 18N to 31N. Isolated showers are within 120
nm of this feature north of 25N. The pressure gradient between a
strong ridge over the NE Atlantic and lower pressures associated
with a surface trough along 22N, between 32W and 42W, support
fresh easterly winds north of 24N and between 30W and 44W. Seas
are 5-9 ft in the waters described with the highest seas occurring
near 29N42W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are present
south of 22N and east of 48W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere
winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate.

For the forecast, high pressure along 28N is supporting moderate to
fresh winds south of 22N, with strong wind near the entrance to
the Windward Passage, and gentle breezes elsewhere. The high
pressure will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front
stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds are likely to increase
Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of
another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri
and reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat.

$$
DELGADO
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