[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal
gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia each night through Thu night.
Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, with the
end of the axis reaching the coast of Liberia. The ITCZ begins
just offshore Liberia near 07N12W, then extends SW to 04N20W to
00N30W to 01N40W to 01S45W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 130-140 nm offshore of
Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 02N
and from 10W to 23W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
from the equator to 07N between 32W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends off the Texas and Louisiana coasts to
NE Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted north of
the front, over the coastal waters. Moist air near the front is
the focus for dense fog across the coastal waters from Texas to
the Florida Panhandle. The fog will begin to dissipate this
afternoon but will return overnight. Gentle to moderate E
shifting to SE winds in the western Gulf and 2 to 4 ft seas are
evident elsewhere. Light SE breezes are also observed in the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front off the Texas and Louisiana
coast will move a little through midweek. Another push of cold air
will move the front more rapidly Thu. This front will then move E
across the Gulf through Fri, bringing fresh to strong N winds in its
wake. Gales are expected Fri offshore Veracruz, Mexico, behind the
front. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat across the
basin as high pressure builds over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

High pressure centered NE of the northern Bahamas along 28N
supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage,
south of Hispaniola, and south of the Lesser Antilles. The
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over
northern Colombia supports a large band of fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean, from the coast of South America near
10N to 16N between 66W and 82W. Seas are moderate to rough in
these areas. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted across the Gulf
of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate
seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of
Colombia through Sat. These winds will pulse to and gale force
late evening to early morning hours through Thu. Fresh to strong
easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure center is located just NE of the
northern Bahamas along 28N. Light to gentle flow is around this
high north of 25 N and west of 65W. An elongated surface trough
axis continues along 55W-56W from 16N to 31N. Isolated showers
are within 130 nm of this feature north of 25N. The pressure
gradient between this trough and high pressure near the Bahamas
allows for a tight pressure gradient, supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds from the south of 25N and west of the trough,
where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NE swell. Winds shift to a more
easterly direction over and near the Greater Antilles, where sea
heights are slightly lower near 5 to 7 ft.

Farther east, a ridge of high pressure stretches to the central
Atlantic and towards the northern trough axis along 55W. The
tight pressure gradient support fresh to locally strong E winds
north of 23N between 30W and 45W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Fresh trades continue in the deep tropics from 04N to 14N
between 22W and 47W, including over the Cape Verde Islands. Seas
are 7 to 10 ft north of the equator to 14N between 25W and 50W.
Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate.

For the forecast, high pressure along 28N will shift east by
late week as a week cold front stalls
along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds will likely increase Thu
night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of
another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri
and reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat.

$$
Mora
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