[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through
Thursday. The sea heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to
12 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 05N09W, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W,
through the Equator along 18W, to 02S23W, through the Equator
along 28W,  to 01N34W, through the Equator along 35W, to 02S37W,
to 03S41W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward
between 07W and 22W, and from 07N southward between 32W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is along 31N/32N from 70W westward. The
stationary front is inland, from 30N to 31N from SE Georgia to
SE Louisiana. The rest of the stationary front, continues from
SE Louisiana, to the Deep South of Texas, and northern Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the Gulf of Mexico,
except for the SW corner of the area. A surface trough extends
from the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern
part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 22N southward from 90W westward.

Gentle to moderate winds, or slower wind speeds, cover the Gulf
of Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5
feet, with some areas of 1-3 ft in the SE corner.

Light onshore winds and abundant low level moisture are allowing
for some areas of dense fog, in the the coastal plains and in
the coastal waters, that are Florida near the Tampa metropolitan
area northwestward and westward, to the Deep South of Texas. The
visibilities are less than one mile with fog in some cases, and
ranging from 3-5 miles or less, in the other cases. The marine
conditions will improve throughout the afternoon of Tuesday.
Dense fog is expected to return during the overnight and morning
hours, through Wednesday.

A stationary front just offshore the Texas and Louisiana coast
will remain stalled into Wed night, before another push of cold
air transitions it to a cold front by Thu. This front will then
move E across the Gulf through Fri, bringing fresh to strong N
winds in its wake. Gales are expected Fri offshore Veracruz,
Mexico, behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that was issued for the coastal waters
of Colombia.

Patches of shallow moisture are moving through the Caribbean
Sea, resulting in isolated to scattered weak showers. Fresh to
strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 6-9 ft, are in
the central one-third of the area, and in the Windward Passage.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. The sea heights range from 3-5 ft in the eastern one-third
of the area. The sea heights range from 4-6 ft in the western
one-third of the area.

Strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia into Fri.
These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening to early
morning hours. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into Thu night.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 52W/53W from 22N to 30N.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, is from 20N to 30N between 40W and 56W.

A surface trough is along 33W/35W, from 20N to 30N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N to 30N between 30W
and 40W.

A surface trough is along 19N43W 10N49W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 10N to 21N between 35W and 50W.

A stationary front is along 31N/32N from 70W westward. The
stationary front is inland, from 30N to 31N from SE Georgia to
SE Louisiana. The rest of the stationary front, continues from
SE Louisiana, to the Deep South of Texas, and northern Mexico.
Moderate to fresh winds are from 24N southward from 70W
westward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere from 24N northward
from 70W westward.

The sea heights range from 7-11 ft from 03N to 17N between 30W
and 46W. The sea heights range from 8-9 ft: from 30N northward
between 40W and 50W, and from 20N northward between 50W and 60W.
The sea heights range from 3-6 ft in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 7-9 ft from 28N
southward between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are from
03N to 15N between 25W and 40W, from 24N northward between 30W
and 46W, and from 17N to 28N between 56W and 70W. Gentle to
moderate wind speeds, or slower, are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure that is centered to the north of the area will
support fresh E winds and higher seas south of 25N tonight,
before weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish Tue. A
weak cold front will reach along 30N on Tue, then meander in the
vicinity into late week. SW winds may increase Thu night and Fri
for waters offshore of northeast Florida, in advance of another
cold front.

$$
mt/ec
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