[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A recent scatterometer pass and recent ship observations
observed near-gale to gale force winds this morning within 60 nm
offshore of NW Colombia. Winds will diminish slightly today;
however, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue
to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia tonight, Mon
night, and possibly Tue and Wed nights. Seas will build to 10 to
12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will continue
to improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African
coast near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and extends
southwestward to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to
02N35W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south
of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between the west coast of
Africa and 19W. Similar convection is noted south of the ITCZ
from 03N to 02N between 19W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaching west-southwestward from northern
Florida to near the Texas/Mexico border dominates the entire
Gulf with fair conditions. A recent scatterometer pass, along
with recent buoy observations, indicated fresh to strong SE
winds are over the northwestern Gulf, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Fresh winds are also noted over the eastern Gulf, east of 86W,
including in the Straits of Florida where seas are 4 to 6 ft and
up to 8 ft within the Straits. Moderate to fresh SE winds cover
the remainder of the basin with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the ridge dominating the Gulf waters and will
sustain  fresh easterly winds across the northwestern Gulf and
Strait of Florida until later this afternoon. A weak cold front
is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf this evening, then
stall and dissipate across the northern Gulf by Mon night.
Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for
the entire Gulf through Thu. The next cold front will enter the
NW Gulf by late Thu, and reach from SE Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas will follow the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds with 6
to 9 ft seas are present over the basin west of 68W, including
the Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh E winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin east of 68W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
south- central Caribbean, reaching minimal gale force at night
near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast
period. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south of
Cuba until late this morning, and near the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Over the western part of the basin, a stationary front enters
near 31N58W and extends southwestward to the central Bahamas,
where it is beginning to weaken. Patchy showers continue within
100 nm of this boundary, north of 28N. A recent scatterometer
pass found fresh to strong NNE-NE winds due to a pressure
gradient mainly west of 50W from the Caribbean Islands, the
stationary front, including over the Greater Antilles and
entering the windward Passage. Fresh winds are also noted north
of the front, north of 29N. Seas in these areas of wind are 6 to
8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to
5 ft seas are noted.

In the central basin, three surface troughs linger, noted in
recent scatterometer data. A surface trough stretches from
31N45W to 22N50W. This surface trough allows for the tight
pressure gradient mentioned above and supports the fresh to
strong winds west of 50W. A very elongated surface trough
stretches from 24N39W southwestward to 14N53W. A 1015 mb low is
noted along the trough near 22N45W. Light to gentle winds are
noted surrounding this feature; however, seas remain 6 to 10 ft
north of about 20N in NE swell. The easternmost trough
stretching from 23N34W to 18N40W intercepts an area of high
pressure, causing another tight pressure gradient and supports
fresh to strong SE winds north of 17N to 25N between 31W and the
trough. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted south of 17N between
the west coast of Africa and about 45W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal
boundary is anticipated to gradually dissipate Mon. Strong high
pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas across the waters S of 25N,
including the Bahamas, Great Bahama Bank, the approach to the
Windward Passage, and the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico through
Mon morning. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the western
Atlantic late on Mon.

$$
Mora
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