[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell:

The gradient between the 1011 mb low pressure near 28N42W and
1041 mb high pressure over the northeastern Atlantic has decreased
enough to allow easterly winds to drop below gale force earlier
this morning. However, strong to near-gale southeasterly winds
with 11 to 13 ft seas in large easterly swell will persist about
260 nm northeast of the low pressure until late this afternoon.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish this evening as the low
weakens further. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower
pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly near-gale to gale
winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia.
Conditions will improve slightly during today, but gale conditions
will pulse up again tonight and likely Sun night. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast near
the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border to 06N20W. An ITCZ then continues
from 06N20W through 02N35W to near the mouth of the Amazon River,
Brazil near EQ47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
the trough from EQ to 03N between 09W and 17W, and up to 160 nm
north and 100 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1029 mb high
over the Florida-Georgia border to north of Tampico, Mexico.
Convergent easterly winds near the southern periphery of the high
and a surface trough at the western Bay of Campeche are triggering
patchy showers across the southern Gulf, including the Florida
Straits. Fresh to strong winds are from the NE to ENE over the
south-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida
Straits; and from the SE at the northwestern Gulf. Seas in these
areas range from 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with
3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1029 mb high will sustain fresh to strong
easterly winds across the the southern Gulf until this evening,
and the Strait of Florida through Sun. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are also expected at the northwestern and west-central Gulf
through Sun morning, ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the
northern Gulf on Sun, which should stall and dissipate on Mon.
Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the
entire Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A fair NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues for the entire basin.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds
with 8 to 10 ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Fresh
to locally strong NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft exist at the
north-central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gale ENE trades at the south-central Caribbean
Sea will decrease to between fresh and strong by mid morning. They
will reach gale force again this evening, and possible Sun
evening. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south of
Cuba and near the Windward Passage through Sun, and across the
north-central Caribbean through the forecast period. The
stationary front just south of western Cuba has dissipated.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
large swell at the central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N66W to the northwest Bahamas. Patchy showers are evident up to
60 nm along either side of this feature. Two upper-level lows near
23N45W and 27N42W are generating scattered moderate convection
north of 19N between 33W and 43W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh
to strong ESE to SE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in easterly
swell are noted at the central Atlantic north of 24N between 30W
and 42W. To the east, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to
E trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft are seen near the Canary and Cabo
Verde Islands north of 10N between the African coast and 30W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE trades with 9 to 11 ft seas in
easterly swell are present north of 09N between 42W and 65W.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
north of the stationary front between 65W and the Georgia/Florida
coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds along with 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of a
stationary front currently extends from near Bermuda to the
northwest Bahamas. It will gradually weaken and gradually
dissipate on Sun. A tight pressure gradient will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Bahamas,
including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage
tonight through Sun. Southerly flow will increase offshore
northeastern Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front
forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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