[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING:
Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and Colombia Low
will cause easterly winds at the south-central Caribbean Sea, just
north of Colombia to reach near-gale to gale force tonight through
early Fri morning. These winds are expected to decrease to
between strong and near-gale by late Fri morning. However, they
will become near-gale to gale again during Sat and Sun nights.
Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft during gale conditions, and at 7 to
10 ft during the day.

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING:
A 1008 mb low pressure well NW of the Cabo Verde Islands near
23N36W will gradually drift westward over the next several days.
Meanwhile, a strong surface ridge is expected to build
southwestward from north of the Azores. Increasing pressure
gradient will produce strong to gale southerly winds NE of the
low near 30N35W Fri morning through Fri evening. Combined seas are
anticipated to range from 12 to 14 ft during gales.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecasts at the website
https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information about both warnings. Both forecasts are issued by the
National Hurricane Center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the W coast of Africa near
09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ begins near 06N18W and continues to
02S30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between
20W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida SW to the Yucatan
peninsula followed by mainly fresh to locally strong northerly
winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft being the strongest winds and higher
seas in the SW basin. Scattered showers are ahead of the front
across the SE gulf waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin early this
afternoon. Winds and seas associated with the passage of this
front will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong
southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in
response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW
Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf
Sun and Sun night, and stall along the northern gulf through Mon
night. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the SW Atlantic
through the Straits of Florida and into the far SE Gulf Sat and
Sat night and diminish Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information on a Gale Warning.

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1027 mb Bermuda
High continues to maintain an easterly trade-wind regime for the
entire basin. This ridge is also supporting moderate to fresh
wind speeds in the E and NW Caribbean as well as strong to near
gale force winds across portions of the SW and south-central
Caribbean where seas fluctuate between 8 to 11 ft. Seas of 5 to 7
ft are across the E basin while seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere in
the NW basin.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the
forecast period. Near gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse
at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the
forecast period. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel
area today, enter the NW Caribbean tonight through early Fri, then
stall and dissipate Sat night. Strong NE to E winds are expected
to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Fri night through
Sun night. Similar winds will resume in the Windward Passage Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information on a Gale Warning.

A cold front in the central Atlantic extending from 31N46W SW to
23N50W to 22N59W is followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and
seas of 8 to 11 ft. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly flow
is ongoing across the NE and central Florida offshore waters ahead
of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast this morning. Seas
are in the 7 to 8 ft N of 29N. A strong pressure gradient between
the broad low in the central Atlantic and surface ridging across
the NE subtropical waters is supporting strong to near gale force
E to SE winds along with seas of 8 to 13 ft. Otherwise, scattered
showers are ongoing between the central Atlantic front and the
center of low pressure.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front across the offshore
waters NE of Puerto Rico will weaken and transition into a shear
line tonight. The second front is expected to reach from near
31N74W to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida this afternoon,
then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central
Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becoming
stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A tight gradient will
create fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the
Great Bahama Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward
passage late Fri night through Sun night. Conditions forecast to
improve on Mon. Otherwise, the next cold front is forecast to
move off NE Florida Mon morning.

$$
Ramos
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