[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: Deepening 1003 mb low pressure over
central Louisiana extends a cold front near the coast at the
Texas/Louisiana border to just south of the Texas/Mexico border.
Meanwhile a warm front extends from the low through SE Louisiana
offshore and across the east-central Gulf to near Cape Coral,
Florida. A squall line is developing north of about 28N ahead of
the front. Sustained gale-force southerly winds are occurring
ahead of the front north of about 27N to 88W per recent
observations, with gusts to storm force in the Mississippi and SE
Louisiana coastal waters. The storm-force winds are forecast to
shift eastward to offshore Pensacola, Florida late tonight into
early Wed, diminishing across the affected coastal waters just
after sunrise Wed, while gale force southerly winds will persist
in the coastal waters offshore the Florida Big Bend through early
Wed evening. Gale force NW winds are also currently west of the
cold front as well, and will diminish there late tonight. Seas
have quickly built to 8-14 ft in the coastal waters from
Mississippi westward to offshore south-central Texas. Gale-force
winds are forecast offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico later
tonight behind the cold front, with seas building to 8-12 ft
there. Gales will diminish there Wed evening. Conditions will
continue to gradually improve Wed night into Thu as the cold front
shifts SE of the area.

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1007 mb low pressure is in the Atlantic
near 28N37W. An occluded front wraps around the low to north of
31N with a cold front extending from a triple point at 27N29W
through 18N35W then weakening from there to 18N52W. A few troughs
are rotating around the low as well per recent ASCAT scatterometer
data. Gale-force winds are occurring NE of the low just north of
the area, and also likely west of the low from about 26N to 31N
and east of 43W to the low. Fresh to strong winds surround this
area from about 22N to 31N between 37W and 45W. Very large and
dangerous seas accompany the winds, up to around 18 ft near
28N40W. Seas of 8 ft or greater cover the waters north of 18N
between about 25W and 50W. Gale-force winds will diminish south of
31N later tonight as the low weakens while drifting southward.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the NW Caribbean
combined with low pressure over northern Colombia and Panama will
continue to support pulsing winds to gale-force in the south
central Caribbean Sea during the next several days, mainly at
night until around sunrise each morning. The sea heights will
build to around 13 feet during the period of the gale-force
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information about all the warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the
Equator near 26W, then resumes west of a surface trough from the
Equator at 30W to just offshore NE Brazil near 01S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 18W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as associated Gale
Warnings.

Other than the conditions mentioned in the Special Features
section, moderate to fresh SE-S winds dominate the southern half
of the basin, locally strong north of the Yucatan Peninsula as
well as offshore Tampico, Mexico. Seas are 4-7 ft across these
same areas, as well as in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the thunderstorms ahead of the front will
continue eastward across the Gulf as the front reaches from
Destin, FL to Veracruz Mexico by Wed morning, from Tampa Bay, FL
to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed night, and exiting the basin from the
Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by midday Thu.
Sustained winds across the northern Gulf of 25 to 35 kt are
expected through tonight and into early Wed morning, with gusts
possibly as high as 45 to 50 kt within the squall line. Gale-
force winds are expected offshore Tampico late tonight, and
offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. Winds and seas
will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly
return flow will begin to set-up in the far western Gulf starting
Sat in response to the next cold front that will be approaching
the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the
southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the
far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. These conditions will
improve late on Sun into Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore northern Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the central Caribbean,
locally near gale-force offshore northern Colombia. Seas are 7-11
ft across this area, spreading southwest as NE swell to the SW
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are near the Windward
Passage, as well as just east of the Gulf of Honduras offshore
eastern Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas
are 5-8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft across the
remainder of the area. Some isolated thunderstorms are in the
coastal waters of western Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near
gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the
coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period.
Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the
northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and
dissipate. Strong northeast to east winds are expected to affect
the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat through early Sun, then
diminish Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 26N65W then continues as a
dissipating cold front to just northeast of the SE Bahamas. A
dissipating warm front extends across the northern Bahamas. A
surface trough is noted between the dissipating fronts, as well as
southeast of the cold front. Scattered showers are possible near
all of these features, with scattered moderate convection north of
29N and east of the front to 50W. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are north-northwest of the cold front. Seas are 7-10 ft north of
29N between 60W and 70W in NW swell. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere
north of 20N and west of 55W.

Southeast of the front, a ridge extends from 31N50W through 1022
mb high pressure near 25N56W to 25N70W. Light to gentle winds are
under the ridge along with 4-6 ft seas in mixed N and E swell.
Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas prevail south of 20N and
west of 40W. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are south of
20N and east of 40W, with moderate to fresh winds offshore NW
Africa, locally strong near the Canary Islands, with 6-8 ft seas
there.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly flow will
develop Wed off northern and central Florida ahead of a strong
cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Wed
evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the
NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as
it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W, to central Cuba early Fri,
and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becomes stationary to central
Cuba by Sat afternoon. A line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms will precede the front east of Florida Wed night
into Thu. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast
to east winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the
stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially over
the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions
improve late on Sun into Sun night.

$$
Lewitsky
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