[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Three Gale Warnings are in effect across the Atlantic basin, that
includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast area near
31N34W and continues SW through 23N40W to 22N47W. The parent low
pressure will drift southward into the discussion waters later
tonight, while associated gale-force winds have already spread
from west of the cold front to about 42W per a recent ASCAT
scatterometer pass. Seas are forecast to peak around 20 ft
overnight. Winds will diminish below gale-force Tue afternoon,
however, very large and dangerous seas will continue to propagate
across the forecast waters into late week.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
winds to gale force in the south-central Caribbean through the
next several days, mainly at night until around sunrise each
morning. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the period of
gale-force winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong low pressure system will
develop over south Texas tonight and move NE across the southern
U.S. The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico late Tue afternoon through Thu. Strong to gale-force
southerly winds and building seas to around 10-14 ft are expected
ahead of the front over the NW and north-central Gulf Tue and Tue
night, and gale- force northwest winds, with gusts to near storm-
force are forecast over the NW Gulf Tue into early on Tue night.
Gale-force winds are also likely offshore Veracruz Tue night into
Wed in the wake of the front with seas to around 12 ft. Winds and
seas will then gradually subside across the basin by the end of
the week.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
on all of the Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N11.5W, and continues SW to near 00N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 00N30W to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within about 120 nm either
side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys SW to just N of the
Yucatan Peninsula to the northern Bay of Campeche. Isolated to
scattered showers are possible near the front, however deeper
convection has diminished this evening. High pressure dominates in
the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh winds and 4-7 ft seas
are north of the front, with gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft
seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and dissipate late
tonight or early Tue. High pressure centered over the SE U.S. will
slide eastward through late Tue as a low pressure system develops
over eastern Texas, and quickly tracks east-northeastward across
the southern U.S. while deepening. The low will drag a strong cold
front across the Gulf of Mexico late Tue afternoon through Thu.
Near gale-force to gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead
of the front over the NW and north-central Gulf Tue and Tue night,
and gale-force northwest winds are expected over the NW Gulf Tue
evening. Gale-force winds are expected offshore Tampico late Tue
night, and offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of the front. Winds
and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh southerly return
flow will begin to set-up in the far western Gulf starting Sat in
response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW
Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the southwestern
Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far
southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across most of the east and
central Caribbean with seas of 8-11 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 7-9 ft are noted
over the remainder of the central Caribbean, with seas of 5-7 ft
over the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted over the NW Caribbean with 3-6 ft seas. Some scattered
showers are noted on the latest satellite imagery within about 210
nm NW of the coast of Colombia, with similar activity noted in the
NW Caribbean. No significant deep convection is occurring in the
basin.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near
gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at night near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Strong winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern
and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then
stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast to east winds in the wake of
the front will prevail in the northwest and north-central
Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from near 31N71W to across the northern
Bahamas to across the Florida Keys. Some Isolated showers are
possible along the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted on
either side of the front north of about 29N between 65W and 80W
along with seas of 7-11 ft, with gale-force winds and seas of 12
ft or greater north of 31N. A ridge extends ahead of the front
from near 31N53W SW to across the central Bahamas. Mainly Moderate
anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell are under the
ridge west of 53W, locally fresh offshore northern Hispaniola.

To the east and north of 20N, the waters are dominated by the
gale-force low described in the Special Features section. Moderate
to fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas are south of 20N, except locally
strong trades and seas to 9 ft south of 15N west of 50W. Mainly
gentle to moderate trades and 5-7 ft seas in mixed NE and NW swell
prevail elsewhere, locally fresh near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is expected to reach
from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba later
this evening, then from near 31N60W to 26N70W and stationary to
east-central Cuba by early Tue afternoon. The front will shift
east of the forecast waters on Wed. Fresh to strong northwest to
north winds behind the front will diminish by early Tue afternoon.
Fresh to strong southerly flow develops Wed over the northwest
waters ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Wed evening. This front is expected to
reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W
to 26N75W, to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N64W to
27N69W and becomes stationary to central Cuba by late Sat. A tight
gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east winds and
building seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front.

$$
Lewitsky
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