[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean Sea will pulse to minimal gale force tonight, and again
Tue night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will build
to around 12 ft during the period of gale-force winds.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N54W
to 26N62W. The parent low pressure will drift southward into the
discussion waters, with gale-force winds spreading west of the
front later this morning. Winds of near-gale to gale will be
possible through Tue, mainly north of 28N and east of 43W. Winds
will diminish below gale-force Tue night. Seas in the area of
gale-force winds will peak near 19 ft tonight into Tue.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure will form over east
Texas Tue and move NE across the SE US. It will drag a cold front
across the Gulf. Near gale force winds are likely Tue and Tue
night across the NW and north-central Gulf, moreso in advance of
the front, but also behind the front, with frequent gusts to gale
force. Seas off Texas and Louisiana will build to 11 to 13 ft.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information on all three Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
07N12W to 00N27W. The ITCZ extends from 00N27W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02S to 06N between 07W and 21W, and from 01S to 03N between 21W
and the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to 21N91W to 21N94W,
then it is a stationary front to 18N95W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 60 nm southeast of the front,
mainly east of 85.5W from 24.5N to 27N. Fresh NE winds are
occurring over most of the Gulf behind the front. Recent buoy and
altimeter data show seas of 6 to 8 ft across much of the Gulf
behind the front, except for 5 ft in the NW Gulf. Gentle to
moderate SW winds are over the far SE Gulf, ahead of the front,
with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Straits of
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening before weakening as
it exits the basin. Fresh north winds behind the front will
diminish today as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts
eastward across southeastern U.S. A strong low pressure system
will develop over east Texas Tue and move NE across the southern
U.S. The low will drag a strong cold front across the Gulf of
Mexico late Tue afternoon through Thu. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected over the NW and north-central Gulf Tue and Tue
night on both sides of the front, with an area of gale force
winds in the NW Gulf late Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Gale
force winds are also possible offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of
the front. Winds and seas across the basin will then gradually
subside by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern
coast of Colombia.

Strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with seas 8-10 ft.
Fresh winds are in the E Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. Fresh winds
are found in the Gulf of Honduras with seas up to 5-6 ft. Moderate
winds prevail north and west of Jamaica with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Near gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at night
near the coast of Colombia through the week. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern
and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then
stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast winds in the wake of the
front will prevail in the northwest and north-central Caribbean
even after the front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the Atlantic waters from 28N-31N between 35W-43W.

A cold front extends from 31N78.5W to Titusville, FL. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 75 nm SE of the front.
Strong to locally near-gale force S to SW winds are occurring east
of the front to 71W, mainly N of 29N. Seas of 7-10 ft are likely
occurring in this area.

Farther E, a cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N54W to 26N62W
with a surface trough continuing to 27.5N68.5W. Strong to near
gale force NW winds are W of the front to 50W, mainly N of 28.5N,
where seas are likely in the 10-14 ft range. A surface ridge
extends from 31N58W to 27N66W to the Bahamas near 25N76W. The
surface ridge is split by the aforementioned surface trough, but
winds are generally weaker near the surface ridge compared to the
two stronger wind areas to the west and east. More surface
ridging and light winds are apparent near 24N39W. In the tropical
Atlantic waters to the south, fresh to locally strong NE to E
trade winds and 7-9 ft seas prevail from 03N-17N and west of 40W.
Fresh to strong NE winds extend from Morocco through the Canary
Islands, with seas 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, The cold front extending from 24N54W
to 26N62W will shift southeast of 55W today. The new cold front
off NE Florida is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late today, from near
31N61W to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early
Tue, then shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest
winds are expected behind the front along with building seas
through mid-week. Marine conditions improve Thu through Fri
night.

$$
Hagen
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