[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221843 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gales overnight have diminished
to near-gale force speeds as of 1200 UTC earlier this morning. The
near-gale force winds were captured well on a scatterometer pass
that from 1500 UTC. From 11N to 18N between 70W and 79W, seas are
9-13 ft, with strong to near gale force winds forecast to persist
through today before diminishing to strong speeds by Monday
morning. NE to E gales will pulse again on Mon night and Tue
night.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to the equator and 50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 11N
east of 19W. Additional scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm of the ITCZ between 28W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

As the low pressure progresses NE away from the Gulf of Mexico,
the warm front has also moved out of the area. As of 1500 UTC, the
primary cold front associated with this low extends from 31N86W
over the Florida Panhandle to 22N98W, just south of Tampico,
Mexico. Fresh to strong NW winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted in the
lee of this cold front across the NW Gulf. Scattered showers and
tstorms are along the frontal boundary. Also as of 1500 UTC, a
secondary cold front is analyzed across the NW Gulf, from the
Texas- Louisiana border near 30N94W to South Padre Island, Texas
near 26N97W. In the central and eastern Gulf ahead of the primary
cold front, S winds are moderate (locally fresh in the NE Gulf)
and seas are 3-6 ft. In the Bay of Campeche, also ahead of the
primary cold front, S winds are gentle and seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the primary cold front will reach from near
Apalachicola, Florida to near 27N90W and to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by this evening as the secondary cold front merges with
it. The merged cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida
southwestward to 24N89W and to the Yucatan Peninsula by late
tonight. The front will weaken as it reaches the far southeastern
Gulf by late Mon. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind
the front will diminish Mon as high pressure in the wake of the
front shifts eastward across the area. A stronger cold front is
expected to move over the NW Gulf Tue, reach from near Mobile,
Alabama southwestward to 25N94W and to the southwestern Gulf by
late Tue night, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula by late Wed night and to just southeast of the area by
late Thu. Strong to near-gale force northwest to north winds
will follow this front across the NW Gulf Tue and Tue night. The
front will also be preceded by strong to near gale-force
southerly winds. Occasional gusts to gale-force may occur on
either side of the front, and a gale warning may be required in
future forecast products.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of
Colombia.

Subtropical high pressure continues to build south over the
Caribbean, tightening the pressure gradient enough to support
fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean. Trades are
moderate to fresh in the E Caribbean, and mainly moderate in the
W Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in
the eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the W Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Winds will pulse nightly, beginning on Monday night, to gale-
force near the coast of Colombia during the week. Moderate to
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. A cold
front is expected to approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu,
possibly enhancing winds and seas there.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 26N60W to 25N68W, then
is stationary from 25N68W to 26N73W. The latest scatterometer data
depcits some unremarkable light and gentle winds near the cold
front, though some moderate to fresh NW winds are approaching the
discussion waters from the north and may enter the area this
afternoon. Seas in excess of 8 ft near the front are north of a
line from 31N44W to 28N53W to 31N61W. A trough is analyzed from
24N62W to 21N67W. Another trough is anbalyzed in the central
Atlantic from 31N37W to 20N39W. 1022 mb high pressure is centered
near 24N51W. Gentle to moderate trades are found across most of
the tropical Atlantic from 20N to 31N west of 25W, with moderate
to fresh NE winds east of 25W. NE winds are locally strong near
the Canary Islands, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh
winds are also noted between Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. South of 20N across the basin, moderate to fresh
trades prevail. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds,
with gusts to near gale-force, will develop off the Florida coast
later today and into tonight ahead of a stronger cold front that
is forecast to push off the US coast tonight into Mon morning.
This front is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W to
26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then
shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are
expected behind the front along with building seas through mid-
week.

$$
Mahoney
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