[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are expected
tonight in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12N between 72W and 75W. Seas will be 8-12 ft. Gales
will begin at 22/0300 UTC, ending by 22/1200 UTC. Just east of the
warning area, strong to near gale force winds will impact the
Gulf of Venezuela with 8-11 ft seas. Please see the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near
06N11W to 01N16W to 01S23W. The ITCZ continues from 01S23W to the
coast of Brazil at 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is near the monsoon trough, from 01S to 07N between 05W
and 25W. Widely scattered showers are from 01S to 02N between 28W
and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Venice, Florida to 26N86W where
it transitions to a warm front that continues to 28N90W to a 1010
mb low pressure near 28N95W. A cold front extends from the low to
near La Pesca in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Fresh E to SE winds are N of
the warm front while moderate northerly winds follow the cold
front. Seas in these areas range between 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate return flow is elsewhere with 3-4 ft seas, except for
locally E winds off the northern Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, the warm front will lift NE of the area this
evening. The cold front will reach from near SE Louisiana to
26N94W to 22N98W early Sun and become stationary over the far
SE Gulf by late Sun. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds
will follow the front through late Sun night, before diminishing
to fresh speeds. Fresh to strong E to SW winds are expected to
develop over the far western Gulf starting late Mon as low
pressure deepens over the southern Plains. A strong cold front
associated to the low pressure is expected to move into the NW
Gulf early Tue afternoon, reach from near Mobile, Alabama to
26N92W and to the SW Gulf late Tue night, then weaken as it
reaches from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Wed night, and from the Straits of Florida to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula by late Thu. Strong to near gale force winds, with
possible gusts to gale-force, at times, may occur behind the front
Tue and Tue along with strong to near-gale force south to
southwest winds ahead of it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING in the south-central Caribbean, off the coast of
Colombia.

Subtropical high pressure extends a ridge SSW across the Caribbean
waters, which along with lower pressure in NW Colombia tightens
the pressure gradient, thus supporting the continuation of mainly
fresh trades across the E half of the basin and fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and portions of the SW Caribbean
where peak seas reach 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in
the NW Caribbean with locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern part of the western Caribbean
through the period. Winds are expected to pulse at night to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight through most
of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras through Wed. A cold front is expected to approach the
Yucatan Channel area Thu and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N60W to 26N72W to 26N75W where it
transitions to a stationary front that continues to Jupiter,
Florida. Fresh winds and seas of 8-10 ft are ahead and behind the
front. Surface high pressure of 1019 mb is ahead of the front just
NE of the southern Bahamas, which is enhancing winds to fresh
speeds just N of Hispaniola. Surface ridging dominates the
remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters,
supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds N of 20N and E of 25W
along with seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds ahead of the front will
shift east of the area early tonight as the cold front moves to
the eastern part of the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front
that is forecast to push off Sun night into Mon morning. The front
is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and
to central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W to 26N70W and
stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then shift east of
55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected
behind this front along with building seas through late Mon night.

$$
Ramos
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