[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near
08N13W to 03N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to
01S40W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 00N to 07N between 10W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07S to 03N between 21W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front stretches from south of Tampa Bay, Florida
to 25N93W then transitions to a warm front that continues to a
1014 mb low over NE Mexico near 25N07W. Fresh to strong winds are
noted in the NW Gulf with moderate to fresh N winds and moderate
seas across the rest of the northern Gulf N of 26N. Seas are 5 to
7 ft with the strongest winds in the NW basin and to 3 ft
elsewhere where light to gentle variable winds dominate. Scattered
showers are occurring in the SE gulf associated with the front.

For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward as a warm
front. Strong winds and rough seas are expected through Sat in the
northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure and
associated frontal boundary meanders in these areas. By Sun, a
cold front will push eastward across the Gulf with fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas following it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly fresh trade winds remain across the eastern half of the
Caribbean and the SW basin, except for strong winds in the Gulf of
Venezuela and within 210 nm off the coast of NW Colombia. Gentle
to moderate winds remain in the NW Caribbean with locally fresh
winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 7 ft E of 82W, except
for 7 to 9 ft in the area of strong winds. In the NW basin, seas
are in the 2 to 4 ft range. Otherwise, deep layered dry air
maintains fair weather basin-wide.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through at
least Wednesday night. Winds could approach near gale-force
closer to the Colombia coast. Moderate to fresh winds will also
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure is centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. Behind
the center of high pressure, a cold front extends from 30N72W to
Jupiter, Florida this evening. The pressure gradient between these
two features is supporting moderate to fresh winds behind the
front and fresh to strong winds ahead of it. Seas are 7 to 9 ft
with these winds N of 27N. Light to gentle variable winds are
elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic waters. In the central Atlantic, a
cold front extends from 31N42W to 24N50W to 22N59W. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are ahead of this front, which main impact
at the moment is mixed swell of 7 to 9 ft. High pressure surface
ridging is across the remainder E Atlantic subtropical waters
where a tight pressure gradient supports fresh to strong NE winds
across the Canary Islands adjacent waters with seas to 11 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds to strong speeds associated with
the cold front along with moderate to rough seas can be expected
along the frontal boundary as it propagates eastward through the
weekend and staying N of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front
that is expected to push off Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh to
strong W to NW winds will prevail behind the front with building
seas.

$$
Ramos
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