[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 02N30W to
02N40W and to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 05N between 33W and 47W. Similar convection is noted
south of the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil between 40W and 44W. An
area of numerous strong convection is also observed from 04S to
01N between 17W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Apalachee Bay, FL, to 28N86W, where
the boundary transitions to a stationary front, extending to
24N95W. A recent scatterometer pass found gentle NW winds
following the cold front, while moderate to fresh NE winds are
behind the stationary front, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. light to
gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are ahead of the boundary. A NW
to SE oriented surface trough in the SW Gulf is supporting
moderate cyclonic flow over the Bay of Campeche, where seas are
up to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh N winds and moderate seas prevail behind
the front. The cold front will stall by Fri morning. Low
pressure may form along the front in the western Gulf on Fri and
move northward. Strong NW winds and rough seas are expected to
develop this weekend in the northern and western Gulf waters as
the low pressure, and associated frontal boundary meanders
northward. The cold front will then push eastward on Sun across
the Gulf with fresh to strong winds following it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anti-cyclonic flow is leading to subsidence and
relatively dry air across the basin. Fresh to strong winds and
sea heights of 7 to 9 ft are occurring in the south-central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh with seas of
4-6 ft, except for locally strong E winds and seas up to 7 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-
central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through early
next week. Winds could approach near gale force closer to the
Colombia coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and then pulse moderate to fresh through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a low pressure system over the
mid-Atlantic U.S. states and high pressure centered east of the
Bahamas near 27N67W supports moderate to fresh SW winds offshore
central to NE FL, north of 28N and west of 74W, where seas are
currently 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic is
dominated by the light to gentle anticyclonic flow surrounding
the high pressure center with 4 to 6 ft seas, except over the
southern Bahamas and northern Greater Antilles, where moderate
NE winds and seas up to 7 ft are noted. A weak cold front
extends from 31N51W to 28N60W. Gentle to moderate NW winds
follow the front, with moderate seas of 6 to 9 ft. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this system is noted north
of 28N between 38W and 48W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 24N40W to 14N42W.
Showers and thunderstorms continue over the NE section of this
surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is experiencing
moderate to fresh trade winds, except over the Canary Islands,
where NE winds remain fresh to locally strong with 9 to 12 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to
build across the area and become centered between Puerto Rico
and Bermuda into Fri. On the NW periphery of this ridge, fresh
to strong SW winds will continue to develop offshore NE Florida
tonight, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will push
off the NE Florida coast early Fri morning with fresh to strong
ahead and behind the front. Moderate to rough seas can also be
expected with this front as it propagates eastward through the
weekend and stays N of 28N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front.

$$
MORA
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