[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1037 mb
high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over northwest
Africa associated with a cold front that extends from off the
coast of Morocco to just south of the Canary Islands and
northwest to 28N27W is inducing north to northeast gale-force
winds near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine
zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Meteo-France is forecasting that these
conditions will continue through early Thu evening, local time.
The Outlook, for the 24 hours that follows the forecast that is
valid until 20/0000 UTC consists of the persistence of northeast
gale force winds for marine zones Agadir and Canarias. Seas of
14-18 ft are likely within the gale-force wind-affected marine
zones. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Sierra Leone
from 08N13W southwestward to 05N18W, where the latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 03N30W to 03N40W and to 03N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 35W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front entered the NW Gulf and stretches
from just east of Holly Beach, LA, to just south of Corpus
Christi, TX. Scattered thunderstorms are within 30 nm ahead of
the boundary along the N Gulf coast. Moderate NW winds are
behind the front, while moderate southerly winds cover the
remainder of the western Gulf ahead of the boundary. High
pressure ridging from the western Atlantic extends over the
eastern Gulf. The tightening pressure gradient between this
ridge and incoming lower pressures associated with the cold
front is supporting moderate to fresh from the S-SE east of 88W.
Locally strong breezes may be just north of the Yucatan Channel.
6 to 8 ft seas are observed over the western Gulf, west of 90W,
with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will extend from the Florida
Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico, by Thu afternoon. Fresh N
winds will prevail behind the front. Low pressure may form on
the western edge of the front in the western Gulf late this week
and move northward. Strong winds are expected to develop this
weekend in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low
pressure, and associated frontal boundary moves eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging over the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean Sea is providing subsidence and relatively dry air,
which is limiting any isolated shower activity across the basin.
A tight pressure gradient across the basin between the 1021 mb
high over the western Atlantic and lower pressures over northern
Colombia and the Yucatan Peninsula is generating areas of fresh
to strong trade winds offshore Colombia, within the Yucatan
Channel, and within the Gulf of Honduras, west of 85W. Seas are
6 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean, west of 85W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts mainly fresh trades elsewhere across
the basin due to the pressure gradient, including within the
Windward Passage. Lighter winds may be in the Lee of Cuba. 6 to
8 ft seas are noted in the central Caribbean between 70W and 80W
and are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through
early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the
Gulf of Honduras into Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For conditions north of 29N and east of 20W, which is north of
the Canary Islands and west of Morocco, please see the Special
Features section above.

High pressure continues to dominate the western Tropical
Atlantic, centered near 27N70W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
flow surrounds the high from 22N to 29N between 60W and the E
coast of Florida, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Some moderate trade
winds are S of 22N, near the Greater Antilles, where seas are
slightly higher, near 6 ft in recent buoy observations. North of
29N, moderate to fresh west winds are noted ahead of a
stationary front north of the area. Over the central Atlantic, a
surface trough extends from 30N51W to 24N59W. The latest
satellite imagery depicts mostly broken clouds with possible
scattered showers north of 27N. Moderate NE winds are noted west
of the trough and south of 24N, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell
extending to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Light to gentle
trade winds is noted east of the trough from 15N to 31N and west
of 42W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Another surface trough extends
from 27N42W to 18N41W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms continue within 210 nm east of the trough. East of
40W, trade winds increase to moderate to fresh, with locally
strong NE winds noted between the Canary Islands. Seas are
mainly 7 to 10 ft and near 12 ft north of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough that
extends from 31N52W to 25N57W and to just east of the Virgin
Islands is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days.
High pressure will build across the area and become centered
between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the NW
periphery of this ridge, fresh to strong southwest winds will
develop offshore northeast Florida Thu through Fri, quickly
propagating eastward into early in the weekend and staying
north of 28N.

$$
Mora
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