[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1037 mb
high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over northwest
Africa associated to a cold front that extends from off the coast
of Morocco near 27N14W to just south of the Canary Islands and
northwest to 31N30W is inducing north to northeast gale-force
winds near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zones
Agadir and Tarfaya. Meteo-France is forecasting that these
conditions will continue through early Thu evening, local time.
The Outlook, for the 24 hours that follows the forecast that is
valid until 20/0000 UTC consists of the persistence of northeast
gale force winds for marine zones Agadir and Canarias. Seas of
14-18 ft are likely within the gale- force wind affected marine
zones. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/
affiche/2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Sierra Leone
from 09N13W southwestward to 04N17W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues
to 02N30W to 02N40W and to 03N50W. Numerous moderate convection
is seen from 02N to 07N between 43W-50W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 03N to 05N between 33W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong southerly winds continue across the western half of
the central Gulf and the eastern half of the NW Gulf due to
a tight gradient between a 1021 mb high center over the western
Atlantic centered near 26N67W and relatively lower pressures over
northeastern Mexico and Texas. As seen in the latest ASCAT data
pass over these areas of the Gulf, the strongest winds are
noted from 20N to 28N between 90W-95W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
across these areas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and 4-6
ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the western
Gulf tonight. However, the pressure gradient is expected to
decrease and the current strong southerly winds ahead of the
boundary to decrease to moderate to fresh. The front will extend
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu
afternoon. Fresh north winds are likely behind the front. Low
pressure may form on the western edge of the front in the western
Gulf late this week and move northward. Strong winds are
expected to develop this weekend in the northern and western Gulf
waters as the low pressure and associated frontal boundary moves
eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging over the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean Sea is providing subsidence and relatively dry air,
which is limiting any isolated shower activity across the basin.
A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic to the
northeast Caribbean, with its tail-end reaching to just east of
the Virgin Islands. Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible
isolated showers moving westward are observed near the tail-end
of the trough and from 15N to 18N between 65W-67W. Latest
scatterometer data indicates fresh trade winds over the central
and western Caribbean, while mainly moderate trades are found
over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast to east
trades are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas are in
the range of 6-8 ft over most of the central Caribbean, except up
to 10 ft off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-6 ft over he
eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft over the northwestern Caribbean,
except for 5-6 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is expected to persist
north of the Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Fresh to
strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and
near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Seas will
build to near 11 ft by Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
nightly in the Gulf of Honduras into Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For conditions north of 29N and east of 20W, which is north of the
Canary Islands and west of Morocco, please see the Special
Features section above.

A surface ridge axis extends from 31N54W to 27N62W to a 1021 mb
high pressure center near 26N67W to 27N76W to central Florida.
Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis, and across most of
the area from 23N to 28N between 60W and Florida. Some moderate
trade winds are farther south near the Greater Antilles. Moderate
southwest to west winds are north of 29N and west of 60W. Over
the central Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from near 31N52W to
25N57W and to just east of the Virgin Islands. Mostly broken low
clouds, with possible scattered showers are within about 120 nm
northwest and 60 nm southeast of the trough. A patch of similar
clouds with isolated showers is noted from 21N to 25N between
51W-55W. Another surface trough extends from near 27N42W to
18N41W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of
this trough from 21N to 27N between the trough and 36W. Wave
heights of 3-4 ft off Florida increase eastward to the 6-8 ft
range between 58W-68W. Seas are also 6-7 ft north of 30N as far
west as 76W. Seas of 6-8 ft due to a long period northwest to
north swell are over the waters north of Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands.

In the eastern Atlantic, fresh winds are present across much of
the area northeast of a line extending from the Cabo Verde
Islands to 23N40W to 31N41W, with seas of 7-10 ft due to
primarily a long period northeast to east swell. Seas of 8-9 ft
in mixed swell prevail elsewhere across the waters north of 22N
between 41W-60W. Farther south in the tropical Atlantic waters,
moderate NE to E trades and seas of 6-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough that
extends from 31N52W to 25N57W and to just east of the Virgin
Islands is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days.
High pressure will build across the area, and become centered
between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the NW
periphery of this ridge, fresh to strong southwest  winds will
develop offshore northeast Florida Thu through Fri, quickly
propagating eastward into early in the weekend and staying
north of 28N.

$$
Aguirre
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