[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures over W
Africa will support strong to near gale-force north to northeast
winds N of 28N and within about 240 nm of the coast of W Africa.
Winds locally gusting to gale-force are expected in the far E
part of this area beginning at 18/0000 UTC tonight. Seas of 10-15
ft are expected with the strong to near gale-force winds, except
building to 11-17 ft with winds that will be locally gusting to
gale-force. The local gusts to gale-force are expected to
diminish to near gale-force early on Wed, but seas will remain
in the 11-17 ft range over the far E part. For the Outlook, for
the 24 hours that follows the forecast that is valid until
19/0000 UTC: a persistence of or threat of near-gale northeast
winds of gale force will exist for the waters of Agadir. For more
details, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website:
https://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 05N17W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 02N25W and to near 01N35W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm of a line from 04N22W to 04N30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center near the Bahamas extends westward
across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low
pressure system over NE Mexico sustain moderate to fresh
southerly winds across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central
and western Gulf, with the highest seas occurring in the NW Gulf.
Seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

The combination of light southerly winds and abundant available
moisture may induce the formation of dense marine fog within 20
nm of the coasts of central and NE Texas and SW Louisiana tonight
into Wed morning. Visibility may be restricted to below 1 nm,
creating hazardous conditions for mariners.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow in the western Gulf
will develop across much of the Gulf tonight and Wed ahead of a
cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night.
The front is forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to
near Tampico, Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely behind the
front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front,
in the western Gulf, late this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from the Leeward Islands near 16N62W to
15N67W and to near 14N75W. Isolated showers moving westward are
along and near the shear line. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate
that fresh to strong northeast to east winds are north of the
shear line, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are present
south of the shear line. The exception is strong northeast
winds occurring within 90 nm of the coast of NW Colombia. Seas
of 5-7 ft are occurring in the central and NE Caribbean and 3-5
ft in the SE Caribbean.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Caribbean from
near 18N75W to 14N79W. Low-level wind speed convergence is
generating some weak showers near the trough axis. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds along with seas of 3-4 ft are prevalent in
the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate
tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-
central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly into Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1019 mb
high pressure system centered east of the Bahamas near 26N73W.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds are evident north of 28N. However,
the main feature of interest in the tropical Atlantic is the
stationary front that extends from 31N52W to 24N58W and to
the Leeward Islands near 16N62W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted north of 2cold front has stalled from 31N51W to the
Leeward Islands. This front will gradually weaken into a trough
through midweek. Fresh to locally strong winds behind the front N
of 28N and E of 68W will diminish by tonight. Seas to 14 ft will
gradually subside through Wed. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. 2N between the frontal boundary and 49W. Seas
are 8-13 ft behind the frontal boundary, especially east of 75W.
The highest seas are occurring near 31N60W. Seas are about 5-8 ft
west of 75W.

Faster east, a surface trough is along 36W from 17N to 25N.
Scattered moderate convection is present to the northeast of
the trough from 23N to 26N between 33W-36W. Latest ASCAT data
indicates fresh to strong east-southeast winds north of a line
from the southern Cabo Verde Islands to 31N45W. Seas in these
waters are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N43W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will gradually weaken into a trough through Wed. Seas north of
25N and east of 75W will gradually diminish during this time.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and center
between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the northwest
periphery of this ridge, fresh to locally strong southwest winds
may occur at times offshore northeastern Florida.

$$
Aguirre
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