[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 05N17W. The ITCZ then extends
from 05N17W to 02N36W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
south of 05N and between 15W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure located near the central Bahamas extends
westward across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a
low pressure system over NE Mexico sustain moderate to fresh
southerly winds across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central
and western Gulf, with the highest seas occurring in the NW Gulf.
Seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

Light southerly winds and abundant moisture will possibly induce
the formation of dense fog within 20 nm of the coasts of central
and NE Texas and SW Louisiana tonight into Wed morning.
Visibility may be restricted to below 1 nm, creating hazardous
conditions to mariners.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow in the western Gulf
will develop across much of the Gulf tonight and Wed ahead of a
cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night.
The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from the Leeward Islands near 16N62W to
14N74W and weak, scattered convection is noted within 100 nm of
the trough axis. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate
that fresh to strong NE-E winds are found north of the trough
axis, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are present south of
the shear line. The exception is strong NE winds within 90 nm of
the coast of NW Colombia. Seas of 5-7 ft are occurring in the
central and NE Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the SE Caribbean.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Caribbean, from
17N75W to 12N79W, and low-level convergence is generating some
weak showers near the trough axis. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, a stationary front from the Leeward Islands to the
central Caribbean his devolved into a shear line. This shear line
will dissipate by tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will
pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of
Colombia through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras beginning this evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1020 mb
high pressure system near the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
westerly winds are evident north of 28N. However, the main
feature of interest in the tropical Atlantic is the stationary
front that extends from 31N52W to the Leeward Islands near 16N62W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north
of 23N and between the frontal boundary and 48W. Seas are 8-13
ft behind the frontal boundary, especially east of 75W. The
highest seas are occurring near 31N60W. Seas are 4-8 ft west of
75W.

Faster east, a surface trough is along 35W, from 17N to 24N.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 22N to 27N and
between 32W and 37W. Satellite-derived wind data show fresh to
strong E-SE winds north of a line from the southern Cabo Verde
Islands to 31N45W. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 31N43W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front has stalled from 31N51W to
the Leeward Islands. This front will gradually weaken into a
trough through midweek. Fresh to locally strong winds behind the
front N of 28N and E of 68W will diminish by tonight. Seas to 14
ft will gradually subside through Wed. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front.

$$
DELGADO
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