[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

Updated Atlantic Ocean section

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic through the Liberia
coast near Monrovia through 04N15W to 01N25W. An ITCZ extends
west-southwestward from 05N28W through 05N38W to near the
Brazilian coast at 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the trough from the Equator to 04N between 18W and 25W, and
up to 100 nm along either side of ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge reaches westward from a 1023 mb high at
central Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh with locally
strong southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are found at the
northwestern and west-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SSE winds
with 4 to 7 ft seas exist at the Gulf of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds and seas at 1 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow in the
western Gulf will persist into tonight before diminishing.
Southerly winds will then increase again across much of the Gulf
Tue night and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter
the western Gulf Wed night. The front will extend from southeast
Louisiana to south of Tampico, Mexico, by Thu morning. Fresh N
winds are likely behind the front

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from near the Leeward
Islands to near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Patchy showers
are occurring up to 100 nm north, and 50 nm south of this
boundary. Fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present along
and up to 180 nm northwest of the front. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia into the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras
beginning Tue evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to the Leeward Islands.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
and up to 180 nm east of the front. Convergent southerly winds
south of the front are causing patchy showers east of the Lesser
Antilles from 12N to 20N between 56W and 59W. An upper-level low
near 28N39W is triggering isolated thunderstorms at the central
Atlantic north of 23N between 33W and 41W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A strong 1037 mb Azores High is channeling fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas at 9 to 12 ft north of 21N between the
northwest Africa coast and 50W. Fresh to strong southerly winds
with 9 to 11 ft seas are present just east of the cold front north
of 25N between 50W and the front. Fresh to strong westerly winds
and seas of 12 to 16 ft are found north of 27N between the front
and 75W. Farther west, gentle NW winds with 5 to 8 ft seas exist
from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the Georgia/Florida
coast. To the south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of
6 to 8 ft are evident from 05N to 21N/25N between the central
Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and
monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slowly shift
eastward through midweek before becoming stationary and weaken.
Strong S winds east of the front will move east of the area by
tonight, with strong winds behind the front remaining N of 28N and
E of 68W. Seas of 13 to 16 ft will gradually subside through
midweek. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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