[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 21z, a cold front stretches
from near New Orleans, Louisiana to northeast Mexico near
24.5N97.5W. Fresh to near gale force winds are occurring behind
the front per recent buoy and platform observations along with 5-8
ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm east
of a pre-frontal trough which extends from near Gulf Shores,
Alabama to 28.5N90W. The front will continue eastward and reach
from near Sarasota, Florida through the south-central Gulf to the
central Bay of Campeche by Fri morning. The pressure gradient
between the front and strong high pressure building in behind it
will bring near gale to gale force NW-N winds offshore Veracruz,
Mexico late tonight through late Fri evening. Seas will build to
7-11 ft behind the front by Fri morning, then 8-12 ft offshore
Veracruz by Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will start to diminish
from west to east late Fri night into early Sat as the high
pressure slides eastward allowing for the gradient to relax.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis stretches across southern Sierra Leone to
just offshore at 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W through
04N25W to 02N41W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
observed north of the Equator to within 120 nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
a developing Gale Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

The associated cold front stretches from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to northeast Mexico near 24.5N97.5W. High pressure
ridging extends from the Atlantic across central Florida to the
west-central Gulf ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds are
north of 27N and east of the front, with gentle to moderate return
flow elsewhere ahead of the front. Seas are 1-3 ft in the SE Gulf,
and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere ahead of the front, except 5-7 ft in
the fresh to strong winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds ahead of the cold front
in the NE Gulf will diminish tonight, but a broad area of strong
N winds will follow the front tonight through Fri night. Gales
will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Fri as described in the
Special Features section, along with rough seas. Conditions will
improve from west to east Sat. High pressure will quickly pass
east across the basin this weekend, with strong southerly return
flow developing in the NW Gulf early Sun. Winds will again
diminish Mon night. On Tue, moderate to fresh return flow will
prevail, increasing to fresh to strong west of about 88W Tue
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridging extends north of the basin from the SW N Atlantic to
the west-central Gulf of Mexico. A fairly benign weather pattern
exists across the basin with mainly clear weather aside from the
isolated trade wind shower. Moderate to fresh trades are in the
central Caribbean, highest northwest of Colombia, and moderate
elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and
mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of
Colombia will occur through Fri, then return Sun night through
the middle of next week. A cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel Fri followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. By
early Sun this front will stretch from Hispaniola to offshore
Nicaragua. On Mon, the front will weaken to a shear line over the
NE Caribbean where it will linger into Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N49W to near 23N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed ahead of the front north of 23N to 40W.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are ahead of the front
north of 28N reaching eastward to near 43W. To the west, a weak
cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N70W. No notable convection
is associated with this front except for some possible isolated
showers within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Ridging prevails
west of the cold front, anchored by a 1023 mb high about midway
between Bermuda and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Winds are
moderate or weaker north of 20N and west of 50W, except locally
fresh across the SE Bahamas and the approach to the Windward
Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in SE swell across this same area,
except 5-6 ft between 50W and 55W.

Elsewhere, broad ridging extends across the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic from a 1032 mb high pressure center north of
the area about midway between the Canary Islands and the Azores.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail under a ridge
extending from the high through 31N35W to 24N55W, with moderate
to fresh trades south of the ridge and west of 30W. Fresh to
strong NE winds prevail east of 30W due to a tight pressure
gradient between the high and troughing along the coast of western
Africa. Seas are 6-9 ft in fresh NE swell across this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move east and
out of the area Fri while the stationary front ahead of it washes
out. A stronger cold front will move off NE Florida Fri morning
then track east across the area through the weekend. Strong winds
are expected behind the front, with seas building to 12-15 ft,
with seas of 12 ft or greater reaching all the way to 23N by late
Sun night. The front will dissipate to a remnant shearline over
the far SE waters early next week with high pressure developing
northeast of the northern Bahamas.

$$
Lewitsky
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