[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N23W to
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 210 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends over the NW Gulf from W Louisiana to N
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the front. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over
the NE Gulf and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will stall over the northern and
eastern Gulf through Mon and dissipate early Tue. Light to gentle
variable winds will dominate the basin afterward through Thu
morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the
coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas
coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds and
building seas will follow the front over the northwest Gulf Thu
night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and
rough seas are possible off Veracruz Fri behind the front, with
fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will
diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds are over the central Caribbean, with
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the
central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will support
the continuation of moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight, with locally strong winds in the
Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Winds will diminish
to gentle to moderate speeds over most of the basin Mon through
Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will
increase again to moderate to fresh speeds over the northwest
Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure
builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will
follow a cold front that will move into the northwest Caribbean
late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N55W to 26N65W, where it transitions
to a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong
winds prevail within 120 nm either side of the front N of 29N. High
pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N, with moderate to
fresh winds S of 20N. Seas in the 5-8 ft range prevail N of 20N,
with 7-9 ft seas prevailing S of 20N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move to the
central Atlantic waters tonight while the stationary tail end of
the front dissipates. High pressure building behind the front will
support moderate to fresh trade winds into Mon night mainly south
of 22N. Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast
early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda
to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move
into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then stall
and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking
ahead, increasing winds and waves will accompany a strong cold
front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri.
The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early
Sat.

$$
AL
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