[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 18W
and 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-4
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast U.S. will
shift east overnight ahead of a cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun morning. The front
will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the
northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will
stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through
Tue night. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast Wed
into Thu. Another front may move off the Texas coast by Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds are over the eastern Caribbean with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range
over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support fresh winds south of Cuba, Hispaniola and in Windward
Passage tonight, with fresh to locally strong winds off the
Colombian coast through Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas
will diminish over most of the basin Mon through the middle of
next week as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to central Cuba. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the waters west of 60W, reaching moderate
speeds S of 22N. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range.
High pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters.
Light to gentle winds are N of 20N and E of 60W, with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range N of 25N and E
of 60W, and 6-9 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the portion of the front north of 25N
will continue to move east of the area through Sun, with the
southern portion stalling then dissipating. High pressure building
behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into
Mon night mainly south of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will
move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and
nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge
with the previous front, and reach from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by
late Thu.

$$
AL
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