[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N10W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to
05N20W 04N30W 03N40W, and 03N50W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward
between 30W and 54W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of
the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. High
level moisture is being pushed toward the NE and E, from
10N to 20N from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, through the
Straits of Florida, to 22N88W in the Gulf of Mexico off
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 24N southward, mainly from 90W
eastward. The wind speeds are NE moderate to fresh
behind the front, and E of 90W, and the sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet.

A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico 18N95W to
23N98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal
waters of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of
the Gulf of Mexico. A 1027 mb high pressure center is in
SW Mississippi. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds,
and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in
most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida
just north of the Yucatan Channel will stall across the Yucatan
Channel by late today then dissipate through Sun. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front
through
Sat morning. Southerly flow around high pressure over the SE U.S.
will dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These winds will
diminish through Sat night ahead of the next front which will
move
off the Texas coast Sun morning. The front will stall over the
northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf through
early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the eastern
Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an east central Caribbean
Sea trough, covers the area that is from 81W eastward.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The surface pressure gradient that is between subtropical high
pressure that is to the north of the area, and lower pressure
that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, has been supporting fresh trade
winds in the eastern and central sections. A localized area of
strong NE winds has been pulsing offshore Colombia with seas
reaching 8 feet. The area that is from the Greater Antilles
southward from 80W eastward in general is filled with sea
heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong
E winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are
in the exposed Atlantic Ocean waters that are to the east of
the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea
heights that range from 3 feet to 4 feet, are in the
NW Caribbean as the surface pressure gradient tightens due
to an approaching cold front.

Surface ridging north of the area will continue to
support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun
night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun night. A weak cold
front will enter the Yucatan Channel this afternoon and dissipate
during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
in the NW Caribbean through Sun evening, including the lee of
Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail through
the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and
through eastern Caribbean Passages through tonight. Moderate
to rough seas in the tropical Atlantic will subside by the
end of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N73W, to the NW Bahamas,
through the Straits of Florida, to 22N88W in the Gulf
of Mexico just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
22N64W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong, are from the Greater Antilles northward from
60W westward. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are to
the east of the front from 27N northward. Moderate to
fresh NW winds, and sea heights that are reaching
6 feet, are affecting the NE Florida offshore waters
behind the front.

A surface ridge extends from 31N30W, to a 1030 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N36W, to 31N55W 30N64W,
to the central Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong winds,
and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet in
a NE-to-E swell component, are from 25N southward
between 37W and 70W. Gentle to moderate E winds cover
the remaining subtropical waters from 37W eastward.

Surface ridging over the east of 60W will continue to shift
eastward today as a cold front moves across the northern
Bahamas today. The front will extend from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Moderate to
fresh SW winds north of 27N and ahead of the front as well as NW
winds behind the front will diminish early in the evening.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of 24N and
east of the Bahamas through tonight, with locally strong winds in
the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola.
Otherwise, the next cold front is forecast to move off north
Florida Sun night into Mon.

$$
mt/er
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