[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to
03N30W and 01N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward from 30W westward, and
from 10W eastward. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of
the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SE coastal Georgia, through NE
Florida, and into the central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes
stationary, and it curves to 23N94W, and to the northern
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
surface trough is about 120 nm to the south and southeast of the
frontal boundary, between 87W and 93W. A second surface trough
is within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico and Texas, from the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 18N95W to 27N97W along the
Texas coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 23N northward from 90W eastward. A
generally weak surface pressure spans the area. Expect gentle to
moderate N to NE winds to the W of the frontal boundary. Expect
light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. An exception is for
moderate to fresh NW winds in the north central Gulf in the wake
of the frontal boundary.The sea heights have been ranging from 3
feet to 4 feet everywhere.

A cold front extending from northern Florida through the
central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche will slowly shift east-
southeast, extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche this afternoon, and exiting the Gulf by early
Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of
the front. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will
dominate this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front
potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly
tranquil conditions are forecast Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough spans Puerto Rico, along 66W/67W from 14N in
the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N to 22N between
62W and 72W. Other rainshowers are spread throughout the
Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are in the Windward
Passage, and near the south coast of the Dominican Republic.
Fresh trade winds cover much of the rest of the eastern and
the central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate E winds have
been in the NW corner of the basin. These winds have been
in advance of a cold front, that currently is moving through
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights
have been ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, from 17N southward.
The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet
elsewhere in the eastern and central sections. The sea
heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
NW Caribbean Sea, except in the lee of Cuba where the sea
heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet. The sea
heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
area that is from Jamaica to the Windward Passage.

Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support
locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night.
Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola through late today, returning across the
Windward Passage Sat night through Sun evening. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the
weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through
eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. Elevated seas in the
Tropical N Atlantic will subside by the end of the weekend. A
weak cold front will approach the area on Fri and dissipate into
the NW basin during the weekend, diminishing winds to gentle to
moderate speeds in the western and central Caribbean early on
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N24W 27N27W 23N30W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

A surface trough spans Puerto Rico, along 66W/67W from 14N in
the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N to 22N between
62W and 72W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N49W, through 31N60W 30N70W , through the northern half
of the Bahamas, beyond the Straits of Florida. The surface
pressure gradient that is between the ridge and a Puerto Rico
surface has been supporting the continuation of fresh to locally
strong easterly winds S of 25N between 40W and 73W. The surface
pressure gradient that is off the NE Florida coast, between the
ridge and an approaching cold front, has been supporting fresh
to locally strong winds N of 29N and W of 73W. Gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights have been ranging from 5
feet to 8 feet in the areas of the comparatively fastest wind
speeds. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 6 feet
in the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic waters will
shift eastward today as a cold front moves off N Florida. The
front will extend from 31N75W to the northern Bahamas early Fri,
from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Sat, and exit the
region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to
continue over the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of the
front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N
and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in
the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola.
Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri
night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell. Another cold front may
move off N Florida early next week.

$$
mt/jl
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