[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of Cote d'Ivoire and
Liberia from 05N03W to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to
03N28W to 03N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 07N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Apalachicola, FL to 25N91W to 22N95W to
18.5N95W. A pre-frontal squall line, which has weakened slightly
over the past few hours, extends from the Florida Big Bend near
29N82.5W to 25N91W. The area of showers and thunderstorms with the
line is about 75 nm in width. The remainder of the Gulf is free of
any significant precipitation. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail
east of the front in the NE Gulf, locally stronger in the squall
line. Fresh N winds are off the coast of Veracruz. Moderate or
weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of
the Gulf.

A cold front extending from near the Florida Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche near 18.5N95W will slowly shift east-southeast,
extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Thu afternoon, exiting the Gulf by early Fri. The squall
line ahead of the front will result in hazardous conditions.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the
front. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will
dominate this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front
potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly
tranquil conditions are forecast Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is spinning over the N Caribbean centered near
17N69W. This feature is inducing scattered showers and isolated
tstorms across portions of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, as
well as waters north of 15N between 65W-71W. Elsewhere, no
significant precipitation is noted over the Caribbean.

Earlier ASCAT data from this morning showed fresh trades across
much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate SE winds are
likely occurring over the far NW corner of the basin. Seas are 5-7
ft over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean and 3-5
ft in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft in the area N of Jamaica
to the Windward Passage.

Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support
locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Mon night.
Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south
of Hispaniola through Thu, returning across the Windward Passage
Sun briefly. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail through the next several days, locally strong in the
Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through
Fri. A weak cold front will approach the area by the end of the
week, dissipating as it moves into the NW portion.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal squall line containing thunderstorms has moved off
the coast of northern Florida and is affecting waters north of 29N
and west of 79.5W. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas
5-7 ft prevail north of 29N and west of 77W. An upper-level low
near the Mona Passage is inducing scattered showers and isolated
tstorms from 18N-21N between 63.5W-70W. 1028 mb high pressure near
33N49W extends a surface ridge west-southwestward to the NW
Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are near the ridge
axis. Farther south, fresh trade winds prevail from 10N-25N
between 40W-70W, with seas 5 to 8 ft. A weakening cold front
extends from 31N41W to 29N50W with little noticeable impact. Over
the far E Atlantic, east of 35W, moderate to fresh winds and seas
of 6-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the
area through tonight. The ridge will shift eastward as a cold
front moves off N Florida Thu. The front will extend from 31N74W
to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central
Bahamas by early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected over the NE Florida offshore
waters tonight and Thu ahead of the front. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds will prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through
Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward
Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will
build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind
swell.

$$
Hagen
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