[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of southern Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 03N13W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N13W to 03N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N to 09n between 26W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to a 1012
mb low pressure located near 24N97W to Tampico, Mexico. Patches
of dense fog continue ahead of the front in the north-central gulf
coastal and offshore waters. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are
across the eastern half of the basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds are in the western half of the
basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will slowly shift east-southeast,
reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by
Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds ahead of the front will persist through today
before diminishing. Only moderate to locally fresh winds are
forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around high
pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening by
Sun night as the next front potentially moves into the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the east and central
Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are seen over the NW
region with the exception of moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras. Locally strong winds also continue across
portions of the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage
and north of Jamaica, and S of Hispaniola where seas range between
5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging building north of the area and
extending to the northern Caribbean will continue to support
locally strong winds off the Colombian coast, across the Windward
Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu, except off Colombia
where strong winds will continue to pulse through Sun night.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean, and the tropical N Atlantic through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds on Thu, then increase to moderate to
fresh speeds again on Fri as a weak cold front approaches the
area. Winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish back to gentle to
moderate speeds on Sun as the front weakens N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging is the dominant feature in both the SW N Atlantic
waters and the NE subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh winds are
in both regions along with seas in the 5 to 7 ft. In the central
subtropical Atlantic, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N45W
to 28N53W. Light to gentle winds are in this region with seas to 5
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the SW N
Atlantic waters through Thu. Then, the ridge will shift eastward
as a cold front move off N Florida Thu afternoon. The front will
extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Sat morning
and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds are
expected over the NE Florida offshore waters today and Thu ahead
of the approaching front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through Fri with locally
strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of
Hispaniola.

$$
Ramos
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