[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N15W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from the equator to 07N between 28W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
return flow prevails over the western Gulf with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the
western Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a developing
winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high pressure over
the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow
through Tue night across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will
slowly move off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon, reaching from
the Big Bend of Florida to Yucatan Thu morning, and cross the
Gulf by Thu night accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds in
its wake on Fri and Sat. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at
times, especially within 120 NM of the US coastline through
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean, reaching
locally strong off the coast of Colombia. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range over the south central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area will
force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the
tropical N Atlantic through Thu morning. Locally strong trades
are expected within 90 NM of the Colombian coast, within the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should diminish
on Thu night over the Caribbean ahead of a front moving across
the Gulf of Mexico, while the trades over the tropical N Atlantic
will remain at a fresh breeze. The weakening cold front should
reach the NW Caribbean on Fri with fresh NE winds and building
seas Fri night and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates much of the Atlantic discussion waters.
Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the waters north of
20N and west of 50Wm reaching moderate speeds south of 23N. Seas
over this area are in the 4-7 ft range. North of 20N and east of
50W, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are in the 5-8 ft
range over these waters. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds
and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary surface ridge between
Bermuda and the N Bahamas will promote gentle or weaker winds
north of 25N for the next two days. As the ridge strengthens on
Wed and Thu, it will force fresh to strong tradewinds south of
25N including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds
ahead of a cold front are anticipated to occur north of the
Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After emerging from the SE United States
coast Thu night, the cold front should extend from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas Sat morning with moderate to fresh NW to N winds
in its wake.

$$
AL
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