[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough stretches from the Africa coast along the
Liberia Sierra-Leone border to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from
06N19W to 04N30W and from 04N33W to 02N51W. A surface trough
interrupts the ITCZ along 31W, from 02N to 07N. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 08N and
between 20W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A previously stationary front has devolved into a surface trough
overnight that extends from just offshore the Florida panhandle
to the center Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W. Another weak trough has
moved off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early this
morning. High pressure centered over the SE U.S. is building into
the Gulf, and there is no significant convection present. Light to
gentle SE winds dominate with slight seas of 1 to 3 ft.

The light winds and abundant moisture across the northern Gulf
coast remain favorable for the development of dense marine fog
during the overnight hours. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until
the late morning hours for the waters from central Texas to the
Big Bend area of Florida. The dense fog is likely to reduce the
visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions.

For the forecast, the aforementioned troughs will dissipate later
today. Mainly gentle winds will prevail through tonight. As the
high moves E, fresh to strong SE to S flow will develop in the NW
and north central Gulf Mon into Tue. The next cold front will move
off the Texas coast by Tue night, then move SE across the basin
into late week. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times,
especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline, early this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the
Caribbean Sea, with no significant convection. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the islands support fresh to locally strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. The strong
winds are found off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted in the eastern and SW
Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to
moderate winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean through early week, with moderate to fresh east winds in
the eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western
Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of
the Colombian coast. Winds will increase some starting Tue night
over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the tropical N
Atlantic waters, and fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive high pressure system north of the area dominates the
tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N21W to 25N40W,
where it transitions into a stationary front that is draped
westward to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north
of the stationary front to 28N and between 53W and 57W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds west of 25W.
Seas in the central and western Atlantic are 6-11 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 30N30W. In the rest of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.
Patchy marine fog is restricting visibility for some waters within
90 nm of the NE coast of Florida.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off the Georgia
and northern Florida coasts today, then track along and N of 29N
early this week. Trade winds are expected to increase during the
middle of the week south of 25N and east of 75W. During that time,
fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and in
the Windward Passage.

$$
KONARIK
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