[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will sweep eastward
across the western and central Atlantic through Thu night. Expect
strong to near-gale force westerly winds north of about 28N to
shift eastward from off the northeastern Florida coast eastward
to 55W. Some of these winds will reach gale-force between 53W-40W
during late Wed afternoon and Wed night. Seas are forecast to
reach a range of 15-19 ft with the strongest winds. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW
swell remains over the waters north of 16N E of 34W and also
N of 23N between 34W-46W and north of 27N between 46W-57W. Wave
periods are of 13-15 seconds. Seas produced by the swell are in
the range of 13-16 ft, with the seas in excess of 8 ft reaching
as far S as 12N E of 46W. Guidance suggests that reinforcing
swell is expected to move south of 31N and east of 55W by Wed,
associated with another low pressure system well north of the
area moving across the central Atlantic. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1019 mb high pressure center analyzed
just northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is going to
strengthen and build eastward through Fri. This will tighten the
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure across
northwestern Colombia. This is expected to lead to strong to
near-gale NE to ENE winds just north of the Colombia coast
through Fri. Winds are most likely to reach gale-force on Wed
night Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W
southwestward to 01N19W. The ITCZ is analyzed south of the
Equator. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 03N to 05N between the coast of Africa and 13N.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N to 02N between
33W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure, both at the surface and mid-levels of the atmosphere,
extends westward from the western Atlantic across the eastern
and central Gulf waters, while a broad area of low pressure over
western Texas extends east-southeastward to eastern and the far
western Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed from just south of
the Texas panhandle southeastward to just northeast of Veracruz.
No significant weather is seen near this feature. Scattered to
locally broken low clouds are observed along and just inland the
Gulf coastal plains. The high pressure is allowing for generally
gentle to moderate southerly winds in the eastern Gulf and
moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds over the western
Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are over the south-central and NW Gulf,
including the eastern Bay of Campeche, and 2-4 ft over the
remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly
winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to
occasional fresh over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow
will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the
northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning
hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a
thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to
strong speeds by Thu ahead of a cold front that is forecast to
move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. These winds could reach
near-gale force across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
upcoming gale event.

A 1019 mb high is centered east of the southeastern Bahamas
near 23N64W. Its associated E to W ridge continues to support a
relatively moderate trade wind pattern for the entire basin.
Isolated showers are seen in an elongated low-level convergence
zone from about 14.5N to 18N and extending from the Lesser
Antilles to 80W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas
of 6-9 ft are present across the south-central basin, while
similar SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
E to SE winds along with seas of 2-4 ft are over the northwestern
Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds along with seas
of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat.
These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin
on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are likely Wed night
and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. By
Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread
over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will
impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
an upcoming gale event and an ongoing significant swell event.

A cold front reaches extends southwestward from 31N35W to
25N46W and to 22N55W, where it becomes a weakening stationary
front to 21N68W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the
front to near 29W and north of 26N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible within 120 nm SE of the front between
37W-42W. Behind this front, a dissipating cold front extends from
near 31N40W to 28N48W and to 29N57W. No significant convection
is noted with this front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are
behind the front to near 45W and north of 28N. Seas associated to
both fronts are as described above under Special Features.

Convergent trade winds are resulting in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast
from 05N to 10N between 47W-54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

In the western part of the area, relatively weak high pressure
is maintaining gentle W to NW winds along with seas of 5-7 ft
seas north of 20N and between 53W-64W. Off the northeast Florida
coast, fresh with locally strong west to southwesterly winds and
seas of 7-10 ft continue eastward to 64W. In the far eastern
part of the area, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds along with
seas of 10-16 ft in large NW swell are over the waters north of
18N between the African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6-9 ft in
N to NE swell are seen from 09N to 18N between the central
African coast and 37W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to
S-SW winds along with seas of 7-10 ft are present from 05N to 20N
between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 4-6 ft seas are over the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will persist east of
63W through Thu. A cold front will shift into the northern waters
tonight, with fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas.
This boundary will also produce strong to near-gale westerly
winds and higher seas north of 28N across the western Atlantic
waters through Wed. Another cold front is forecast to exit the
U.S. southeast coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing
winds and seas off Florida and near the NW Bahamas.

$$
Aguirre
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