[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Near-gale force winds persist
across Atlantic waters north of 30N between 45W and 60W, south of
a complex low centered farther north, and north of a cold front
reaching from 31N37W to 25N60W. Frequent gusts to gale force are
likely ongoing in this area, and a gale warning remains in effect
accordingly. The winds will diminish slightly through the
overnight hours, with gusts to gale force becoming less frequent.
For information on wave heights, please see the paragraph below.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW swell
persists across the Atlantic waters, mainly north of 12N between
20W and 60W, with 12 to 16 second periods. The swell is related
to a series of strong low pressure systems well north of the area
that have been moving west to east across the north-central
Atlantic, producing up to hurricane force winds. Recent altimeter
satellite data indicates the maximum heights south of 31N have
subsided to 15-16 ft as the swell decays, but also that the extent
of swell in excess of 8 ft has spread as far south as 12N.
Shorter-period, wind-driven seas associated with strong to near-
gale force winds are mixing with the swell, north of 25N between
35W and 55W. Reinforcing swell is expected to move south of 31N
and east of 55W by Wed, associated with another low pressure
system well north of the area moving across the central Atlantic.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the Sierra Leone/Guinea
border to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 02N25W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N
between 22W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the central Gulf from 1018 mb
high pressure centered over the southeast Gulf to near the mouth
of the Rio Grande. Farther south, a surface trough extends from
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the south-central Gulf.
Recent buoy and satellite derived data show gentle to moderate
winds across the basin. Wave heights are 1 to 3 ft in the eastern
Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf. Areas of fog are evident
in the nearshore waters of Texas and southwest Louisiana, with
dense fog near Corpus Christi.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate
for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the
western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor
the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during
night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu
ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf
on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the
northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

E to SE trade wind flow persists across the basin south of high
pressure centered over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong winds over
the south- central Caribbean, with the strongest wind off
Colombia. Wave heights are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area.
A land- based observation on Roatan in the Gulf of Honduras
confirmed strong E winds in that area as well. Wave heights over
the Gulf of Honduras may be 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 3 to 5 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere across the
basin. A few passing showers are active across the southern
Windward Islands, but no significant weather is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient south of the ridge will
sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean through Sat. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are
possible Wed and Thu nights off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through
Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force
and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N
swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of
this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
ongoing gale warning and a significant swell event.

A cold front reaches from a complex low west of the western Azores
to 31N37W to 25N50W to 25N65W. Recent satellite data confirms the
strong to near-gale force winds and large swell north of the front
described in the Special Features section above. Fresh to strong
SW winds are evident within 120 nm east of the front, along with
scattered moderate convection. Fresh to strong SE winds are also
noted in the satellite data off the northeast Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted south of 15N with 6 to 8
ft seas, and gentle breezes with 5 to 7 ft waves elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to strong westerly winds will
prevail north of 26N east of 55W through tonight. Rough seas will
persist east of 65W through Thu. Another cold front will move off
the east coast of the United States later this evening, bringing
fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas to the waters off
northeast Florida late tonight. This boundary will also produce
strong to near-gale westerly winds north of 28N across the western
Atlantic waters Tue through Wed.

$$
Christensen
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