[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 986 mb gale center well N of the
area is near 38N39W. A cold front extends from this low south-
southwestward to 31N40W to 26N50W, and in a general westward
direction to 25N60W to 25N68W and northwestward from there to
near 31N77W. Gale-force winds SW to W winds are S of the low to N
of the front roughly between 38W-44W, with seas in the range of
16-20 ft. As the low tracks northeastward overnight tonight, the
gradient between the low and the front will slacken enough to
allow for the gale-force winds to diminish to just below gale-
force, however, the resulting large seas will be slow in
subsiding. More on these seas in the following paragraph below.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends
south-southwestward from a 986 mb gale center that is well N of
the area through 31N40W to 31N40W to 26N50W, and in a general
westward direction to 25N60W to 25N68W and northwestward from
there to near 31N77W. In addition to the gale-force winds that
are present between the low and front, long-period NW swell over
these waters is producing seas in the range of 16-20 ft at 13-15
seconds. Seas southeast of the front to near 25N are in the 12-18
ft range in NW swell at 12-14 seconds. This event is forecast to
be rather long in duration as yet another set of reinforcing
long-period NW swell will maintain very large combined seas N of
about 24N and between 30W-62W. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of
Liberia near 06N10W southwestward to 03N14W and to the Equator
near 20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
continues to 30W and southwestward to the coast of Brazil near
02S43W. The only deep convection noted is N of the ITCZ within
30 nm of a line from 02N20W to 02N25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed E of the Gulf over the
central Bahamas near 24N76W. A ridge extends from the high
westward to the Straits of Florida and to the central Gulf near
24N88W. A weak cold front, of Pacific origin, is just inland the
Texas coast. Light winds are near the front. No convection is
noted with it. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are evident
across the Gulf per latest buoy observations and recent ASCAT
data passes. The exception is from 22N to 26N between 87W-94W
where moderate to fresh winds E to SE winds are present and in
the eastern Bay of Campeche, where moderate to fresh N to NE
winds are occurring. Seas are in the 3-5 ft throughout, except
for lower seas of 2-4 ft in the NW and southeastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to
moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh
over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to
favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf
during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu
ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf
on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the
northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area centered in the central Bahamas, is
for the most part, driving the wind regime over the western and
central sections of the sea. The gradient between the high and
relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing
for fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
waters and strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras as indicated
in latest ASCAT data passes. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
elsewhere across the sea as suggested by the latest ASCAT data
passes. The exception is from 15N to 18N W of 72W, where fresh
trade winds are present. Seas are in the range of 6-9 ft from 11N
to 15N between 72W-80W and 4-7 ft elsewhere including the
Yucatan Channel area, except for lower seas of 2-4 ft N of 18N
between 72W-85W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong
trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through Fri.
Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are possible Wed night and
Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night tonight through Wed. By
Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and
spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell
will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
ongoing gale warning and a significant swell event.

A cold front extends from extends from this low south-
southwestward to 31N40W to 26N50W, and in a general westward
direction to 25N60W to 25N68W and northwestward from there to
near 31N77W. Satellite imagery shows areas of rain with
scattered moderate convection along and to within 60-90 nm E-SE
of the front N of 25N. A surface trough extends near the front
along a position from 24N56W, southwestward to 22N65W and to the
southeastern Bahamas. Scattered to broken low clouds, with
possible isolated showers are within 90 nm SE of the trough
between 56W-64W. Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered
over the central Bahamas near 24N76W, with a ridge extending
westward to the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure of 1023 mb
is analyzed over the far northeast part of the area near 29N21W.
Latest ASCAT data passes generally suggest strong to near-gale
force SW to W winds to the southeast of the cold front to near
25N. Seas with these winds are in the 12-18 ft range as mentioned
above under the Special Features section. Seas of 8-11 ft are
elsewhere S of the front to near 15N and between 25W-58W. Latest
ASCAT data passes and some buoy observations reveal gentle
to moderate winds over most of the remainder of the area, except
for fresh to strong W to NW winds N of the cold front N of about
28N and between 45W-62W along with seas of 8-12 ft in NW swell
between 52W-62W, except for higher seas of 11-15 ft also due to
NW swell between 45W-52W. Seas elsewhere are in the 6-8 ft
range between 60W-70W, from 4-6 ft N of the Bahamas, and
lower seas of 2-4 feet S of the Bahamas and W of 70W.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong westerly winds will
prevail N of 28N east of 60W through tonight. Rough seas will
persist east of 60W through midweek. A cold front will move off
the eat coast of the United States this evening bringing fresh
to strong westerly winds and building seas to the waters off
northeast Florida by late tonight. This boundary will also
produce strong to near-gale westerly winds north of 28N across
the western Atlantic waters Tue through Wed.

$$
Aguirre
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