[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure centered
near 33N61W will intensify more as it moves toward Bermuda
through tonight. The wind speeds will reach gale-force from 29N
northward between 55W and 60W by this evening, as this system
moves eastward and it strengthens. Please, read the paragraph
below for more information about its associated swell.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Earlier altimeter data
depicted combined sea/wave heights already reaching 21 ft N of
28N between 35W and 46W. These data represent a new set of
reinforcing northerly swell, with periods that range from 12
seconds to 16 seconds. These waves are expected to reach 20N
between 20W and 54W through the next few days. Another round of a
large NW swell will impact the waters that are from 27N northward
between 35W and 55W, by Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to
03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N and E of
30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N85W in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea
heights ranging from 2 to 4 ft prevail over the western half of
the basin, while light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
over the eastern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Thu. Expect gentle to moderate southerly winds for
the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh southerly winds
at the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to
favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf
during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough.
Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong speeds by
Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the
Gulf on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 7 to
9 ft, are in the south central and SW sections of the area.
Moderate to fresh ENE winds, and sea heights that have been
ranging from 4 to 7 ft, are in the north central sections. Moderate
ENE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 3 to 5 feet, are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
located near the Bahamas and the Colombian low will sustain fresh
to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through
midweek. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal
gale-force possible Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to occasional strong
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through
Thu. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern
Caribbean and passages through midweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the upcoming GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT.

A cold front extends from 31N29W to 24N44W to 25N56W. The front
becomes stationary from that point to a 1014 mb low centered near
27N66W. To the east, a 1020 mb high pressure center is near
22N27W. Strong to near-gale SW winds are from 28N northward
between 55W and 70W. Mostly fresh to strong SW winds are from
25N northward between the cold front and 23W. Another area of
fresh to strong winds are noted N of 23N between 22W-46W. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail S of 20N. Seas of 12 to 20 ft are depicted
in altimeter data N of 24N between 31W-57W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft
prevail elsewhere N of 23N between 21W-67W. Seas are
ranging between 3 to 7 ft elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move across the N
waters reaching from 31N58W to 29N65 by this evening. At this
time, minimal gale force winds are expected ahead of the front N
of 30N between 53W and 57W. Gales will shift E of the area by
tonight. Rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting
mainly the eastern waters through midweek. Looking ahead, another
frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/Carolinas coast
on Mon, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and rising seas to
the waters E of northeast Florida by Mon night.

$$
ERA
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