[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient prevails
over the northern Colombia area supporting fresh to strong winds
during the daytime hours, and gale force winds tonight. Seas will
peak in the range of 9 to 11 ft under the strongest winds.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Developing low pressure currently
moving off the Carolina coast will deepen further as it moves
toward Bermuda through Sun, bringing fresh to strong westerly
winds north of 30N between 60W and 70W. As this system moves
farther east and strengthens, winds will reach gale force north of
29N between 55W and 60W on Sun night. See paragraph below for a
detailed description of expected wave heights in this area.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: An earlier Altika
altimeter satellite pass indicated combined sea wave heights were
already reaching up to 20 ft near 30N between 45W and 55W. This is
part of a new push of reinforcing northerly swell of 10 to 20 ft
with 12 to 15 second periods into the waters north of 20N between
25W and 65W through Sun. Although in the process of decaying,
swell in excess of 8 ft will reach into the tropical Atlantic by
late Mon, mainly east of 55W. Looking ahead, another round of
large NW swell will impact the waters north of 28N between 35W and
55W by mid week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to
02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01N35W to 02S45W.
No significant thunderstorm activity is evident.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N85W. The regular,
daily surface trough that forms over the western coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula has developed and extends into the south-central
Gulf. This may be supporting fresh or locally strong NE to N winds
along the northern and western Yucatan coastlines. Light and
variable winds persist over the northeast Gulf, with moderate E
to SE winds elsewhere. Wave heights are 2 to 4 ft across the Gulf,
except near flat over the far northeast Gulf under the center of
the high pressure. Areas of fog are still being reported over the
northern Gulf, but no areas of dense fog are evident at this time.

For the forecast, the 1023 mb high at the northeastern Gulf and
western Florida will dominate most of the region through midweek
next week. Expect light to gentle winds for the eastern Gulf, and
moderate to occasional fresh southerly winds at the western Gulf.
This will continue to favor the development of marine fog across
the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning
hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal
trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by
Thu evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to move across
the Gulf region on Fri. Gales could develop at the western Bay of
Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the ongoing gale warning.

Strong to near-gale force winds persist off the coast of Colombia,
with 8 to 10 ft wave heights. Fresh winds persist elsewhere over
the south-central and southwest Caribbean, with strong winds noted
across the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Moderate trade winds are noted elsewhere. Wave
heights are 4 to 6 ft in most areas outside of the southwest
Caribbean. Regional radar depictions indicate a few passing
showers near Puerto Rico and across the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, thee tight gradient between a high near the
northwest Bahamas and Colombian low will sustain moderate to fresh
with locally strong winds across the central Caribbean through
midweek next week. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to
minimal gale-force through early Sun morning, and possible Wed and
Thu nights. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur in the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun morning, then become
moderate by late Sun afternoon. Fresh to occasional strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed.
Moderate long-period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean and
passages through midweek next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the upcoming gale warning and significant swell.

A cold front reaches from the western Azores to 25N50W to 25N70W.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas are noted both ahead of
and behind this front, between 30W and 60W. Gentle to moderate
winds and 5 to 6 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge along 27N will
maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and
near Windward Passage until early Sun morning. A strong cold front
sinking southeastward from the Georgia/Carolinas coast will reach
from 31N63W to 28N74W by noon Sun. It should then push eastward
into the central Atlantic with its tail from 31N52W to 27N68W by
Sun night. Fresh to strong NW to W winds and large northerly swell
behind this front will reach north of 28N east of 70W overnight.
By late Sun afternoon, these winds will reach near-gale to gale
force east of 65W with very large swell. Looking ahead, another
frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/northeast
Florida coast on Mon night, bringing fresh to strong westerly
winds and rising seas to northeast Florida offshore waters.

$$
Christensen
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