[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241810
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight gradient exists between
a 1026 mb NW Bahamas high pressure center, and comparatively
lower surface pressures that are in northern Colombia.
Expect fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea during the daytime hours, and near-gale to gale-
force trade winds during the nighttime hours, through Saturday
night. The sea heights will peak in the range from 11 feet to 13
feet, with the comparatively fastest wind speeds. Please, read the
latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS AND SWELL EVENT:
The sea heights currently range from 8 feet to 12 feet from
27N northward between 46W and 60W. The 12 feet sea heights
right now still are closer to the areas of 30N/31N. The sea
heights are forecast to reach 12 feet and greater, from 22N
northward between 30W and 63W, from Saturday through Sunday
night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W,
to 01N26W. The ITCZ is being broken by two surface troughs.
The first surface trough is along 03N27W 02N31W 03S35W. The
second surface trough is along 05N39W 03N42W 01S44W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. A weak north-
to-south oriented surface trough is in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Areas of fog and low visibilities were in the
NW Gulf coastal waters during the late night and early-
morning hours. The skies have been clearing with time from
Mississippi westward. Some areas of IFR/MVFR conditions remain.
Some areas of LIFR/IFR are in the SE Mississippi coastal plains.
IFR/MVFR conditions are elsewhere between SE Mississippi and the
Florida Big Bend.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE winds are in the central
and SW sections, and in the northwest and northern parts of the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in these areas range from
5 to 7 ft. Moderate SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere
in the western Gulf west of 95W. Moderate E winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas are in the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 to 4 feet are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Patchy areas of dense marine fog will continue to be possible
within 20 nm of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast through Sat
morning. Surface high pressure will continue to be centered over
Florida during the next few days. A diurnal trough developing
over the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons will
propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche each night through
Sun night. This pattern will lead to gentle to moderate SE winds
across the northern and NE Gulf, while moderate to fresh SE
winds will continue for the southern and SW Gulf, with locally
strong winds during the late afternoon and evening off the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Looking ahead, a frontal
boundary across the Gulf States could cause moderate to fresh
southerly winds for the northern Gulf Mon before becoming gentle
to moderate on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information
about the ongoing Gale Warning.

An 1026 mb high near the northwest Bahamas continues to support a
NE to ESE trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy
trade-wind showers are seen south of the Dominican Republic and
Puerto Rico. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale
NE to ENE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are present at the south-
central basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found over the north-central basin,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are occurring at the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly
moderate ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

A 1026 mb high near northwest Bahamas will help maintain fresh to
strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea through Sat night.
These winds should decrease gradually in both speed and coverage
starting Sun. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of
Colombia during the evening and early morning hours through Sat
night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Strong to near gale E to SE
winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Sun morning.
Looking ahead, moderate long-period N swell will impact the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters by Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information
about the upcoming SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS AND SWELL EVENT
that is forecast to start on Saturday in the central
sections of the Atlantic Ocean.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front and surface trough pass
through 31N28W, and reach to 21N64W. Patchy showers have
been within 60 nm on either side of the frontal boundary.
Farther south, an upper-level trough near 27N36W is triggering
scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between 35W and
41W.

Despite gentle to moderate NE to SE winds near the weak cold
front, 8 to 11 ft seas in large northerly swell are evident
north of 25N between 35W and 52W. To the west, light to gentle
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present near a 1026 mb high, north
of 24N between 52W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the
Canary Islands, Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of
5 to 7 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest African coast
and 35W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate with locally
fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 7 ft are seen from 08N to 20N
between the central African coast and 35W. Farther west, gentle
to moderate NE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 04N to
24N/25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

A surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through
Sun morning. A strong cold front will move south of 31N tonight,
extend from near 30N55W to 27.5N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, then
begin weakening Sat night while extending from 25.5N55W to
25.5N67W to 29N73W. Strong NW to N winds will follow behind the
front late tonight through Sat, mainly east of 75W and north of
26N. Large N swell will propagate southward east of 65W though
Mon night. Looking ahead, a low pressure system should be
located near Bermuda on Sun, likely extending a cold front with
strong to near gale force winds into the TAFB waters well to the
NE of the Bahamas on Sun. This system should then move E between
28N and 31N through Mon night. NE swell producing large seas is
expected behind this front.

$$
mt/ah
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