[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just
offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest
winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the
forecast period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 03N16W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ to 01N21W and along the Equator to near 47W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are seen S of the
trough from 02N to 04N between 07W-14W and within 60 nm S of the
ITCZ between 17W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure system positioned between the Leeward Islands and
Bermuda extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The associated
very dry environment supported by dry air loft as well continues
to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across
the basin. The pressure gradient has tightened over the western
Gulf due to lowering surface pressures in Texas and northern
Mexico. This has induced fresh to strong southerly winds west of
about 90W. Seas over these waters are in the range of 5-7 ft,
except for higher seas of 7-10 ft over the far NW Gulf from 26N
to 28N between 95W-97W. Fresh to strong SE winds also exist off
the northern Yucatan Peninsula, mainly south of 24N and between
87W-91W. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range.
Elsewhere, light to moderate winds and slight seas prevail.

Light and moist southerly flow over relatively cooler water has
created areas of fog, some of the dense type, along and just
offshore the Gulf coastal plains from Alabama eastward to
the Florida panhandle, including Big Bend region. Similar
favorable conditions for marine fog to develop are again
expected tonight.

Areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern
Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure that extends from the western
Atlantic to the eastern Gulf will change little over the next few
days. Fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Gulf will
increase to strong to near gale- force today as they quickly
expand eastward to the central Gulf. Peak seas are forecast to
reach to 11 ft during the afternoon. These winds and seas are
ahead of a frontal system that will stall across Texas. High
pressure and associated fresh return flow is expected across most
of the basin Thu, before diminishing to moderate speeds Fri.
However, fresh return flow will persist on Fri in the SW Gulf and
off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are expected across the basin Sat through Sun night as the
western extension of Atlantic high pressure will reach westward
along 30N. Nocturnal fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected
along the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the period as the
Yucatan Peninsula trough moves offshore each evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect most of
the Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring in the
south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as confirmed by
an overnight ASCAT data passes. Near gale to gale-force NE to E
are occurring  off the northwest coast of Colombia as described
in the Special Features section. Outside of the Gale Warning area,
seas are 5-9 ft. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds along
with seas of2-3 ft are present in the lee waters of Cuba. Patches
of low-level moisture, with possible isolated showers are mainly
overt the eastern Caribbean and over sections of the central and
western Carribbean S of 17N.

For the forecast, a Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will
help maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean through Sat as high pressure reorganizes NE of the
Bahamas. The coverage area of these winds is expected to diminish
beginning Sat night. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast
of Colombia each night through Sat. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through
Sun night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras
will change little through late Fri night. Fresh to strong SE
winds in the Yucatan Channel are expected to continue through Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters.
The pressure gradient between this high pressure and a storm
system south of Nova Scotia has induced fresh to strong SW winds
north of 28N and between 55W-70W. Seas related to these winds
are in the 6-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
and seas of 5-7 ft prevail in the deep tropical S of about 20N.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are located off NW Africa N of a from
north of 25N and east of 19W along with seas in the range of 5-7
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will
weaken this morning, then reform NE of the Bahamas by this
evening. The western part end of a cold front will move
southeastward across the NE forecast waters this afternoon and
night, and reach along 22N by late Thu. High pressure behind the
front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during
this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell and near gale-force NW
winds are possible on Sat across the NE waters associated with
another cold front. The southern part of a cold front will brush
the NE forecast waters Sun and Sun night. Otherwise, rather quiet
conditions are expected during this time as high pressure settles
in over the area.

$$
Aguirre
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