[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force each night just
offshore Colombia. Seas will peak near 14 ft within the strongest
winds. Pulsing gales are expected to continue nightly through the
forecast period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N25W to 03N40W to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to
06N between 45W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis currently extends across S Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico along 25N producing light to gentle return flow and seas
of 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh
SE to S winds over the western Gulf where seas in the 3 to 5 ft
range. Some clouds are noted across the basin moving northward
under the southerly flow.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force southerly winds are
expected over the NW and north-central Gulf tonight and Wed.
Peak seas to 11 ft are forecast in the highest winds through Wed
evening. These winds and seas are ahead of a frontal system that
will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is
forecast across most of the basin Thu, before diminishing to
moderate speeds Fri. However, fresh return flow will persist on
Fri in the SW Gulf and off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected across the basin
Sat and Sat night as the western extension of Atlantic high
pressure will reach westward along 30N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
continuing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia.

Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia
with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere across the east and central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the NW part of
the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over the south-central Caribbean
based on altimeter data, 5 to 7 ft over the eastern part of the
basin, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the area producing
isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated over
the Lesser Antilles where light showers have been reported.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 26N will help
sustain fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean through
Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high pressure
reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale-force
off the coast of Colombia each night through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward
Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Sat night. Fresh to strong SE
winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Honduras tonight
through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will begin in the
Yucatan Channel tonight and last through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the entire Atlantic forecast region with
a 1020 mb high pressure located near 27N60W. Another high pressure
center of 1025 mb is S of the Azores near 34N27W. Under this
weather pattern, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails,
except off NE Florida where W winds are fresh to strong affecting
the waters N of 29N and W of 75W, between the coast of Mauritania
and 20W in the E Atlantic where NE winds are fresh to strong,
and between the Madeira and the Canary Islands where moderate to
fresh northerly winds are blowing. Seas are generally in the 4 to
7 ft range across the entire area E of the Bahamas with the
exception of 6 to 8 ft between the coast of W Africa and the Cabo
Verde Islands.

For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W ridge axis along 26N will
weaken through tonight, then reorganize NE of the Bahamas Wed.
Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern waters should
continue through early Wed as a frontal system sweeps eastward
across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that front will move
southeastward across the NE forecast waters Wed afternoon and
night, and reach along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the
front will act to freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during
this period. Looking ahead, large NW swell and near gale force
NW winds are possible on Sat across the NE waters associated with
another cold front.

$$
GR
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