[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
mid-Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia
will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime,
and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean, just
north of Colombia most of this coming week. Seas under the
strongest winds will range from 12 to 14 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

There is no monsoon trough in the Atlantic Basin based on the
latest analysis. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 00N28W to 01S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 07N between 20W and
50W, and from 00N to 05N between 00W and 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds prevail over portions of
the SW Gulf in the wake of a former cold front that moved out of
the basin late Sat. Seas in the Bay of Campeche are in the 5 to 8
ft range. A 1028 mb high is centered in the Florida Panhandle and
extends a ridge across most of the basin, thus supporting light to
gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, enhanced winds in the Bay of Campeche will
diminish today as the cold front E of the area continues to move
further away from the region. Surface high pressure and associated
ridging will develop across the Gulf today, providing mainly
light to gentle variable winds basin-wide through Mon night.
Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across the western half of
the Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to
emerge from the coast of Texas Wed morning. These winds are
forecast to reach strong to near gale force speeds Tue night into
Wed and expand to portions of the eastern basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section regarding an ongoing
Gale Warning.

Surface ridging associated with a 1026 mb high pressure centered
NE of the area extends southward across the northern Caribbean and
continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across most of
the basin, except for the Gulf of Honduras and the SE Caribbean
where moderate to locally fresh winds are being reported. Seas in
the regions of fresh to strong speeds are in the 7 to 9 ft range
while in the SW Caribbean near Colombia seas are in the 10 to 13
ft range.

For the forecast, the high pressure ESE of Bermuda will weaken
today and dissipate tonight as a cold front continues to move SE
across the western Atlantic. A new center of high pressure will
develop near 27N60W on Mon in the wake of the cold front and will
sustain fresh to strong easterly trades in the central and great
portion of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of
central and eastern Cuba most of the forecast period. Winds will
pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through Thu
night. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical
Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to strong
trade winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish
to fresh speeds tonight through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
large northerly swell and rough seas.

Surface ridging associated with a 1026 mb high centered near
30N54W extends SW across the Bahamas. A cold front extends across
the W Atlantic from 31N59W to southern Andros Island and then
stalls across western Cuba. Farther east, in the central
subtropical waters, a 1014 mb low near 23N42W maintains 8 to 11
ft seas in mixed NE and E swell, and fresh to strong winds within
390 nm N semicircle of the low center.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will
prevail S of 22N through late Mon, except N of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage that will continue through the
forecast period. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind the cold front,
then gradually veer to the E and diminish through this evening as
the front stalls before dissipating. The tail of a cold front is
forecast to emerge from NE Florida on Mon morning and affect the
northern offshore waters with moderate to fresh SW to W winds
through early Wed.

Otherwise, residual large, long-period mixed NE to E swell associated
with the 1014 mb low near 23N42W will maintain 8 to 11 ft seas
across most of the subtropical central Atlantic waters through
Mon.

$$
Ramos
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