[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Feb 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
mid-Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia
will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at daytime,
and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean, just north
of Colombia most of this coming week. Seas under the strongest
winds will range from 12 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Central Atlantic Large Swell: Residual large, long-period
northerly swell associated with a 1014 mb low near 24N42W will
maintain 11 to 12 ft seas within 120 nm of 26N45W through tonight.
As the swell subsides further Sun morning, seas should drop below
11 ft after sunrise. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

There is no monsoon trough in the Atlantic Basin based on the
latest analysis. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 01N20W
to beyond the Equator at 26W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the Equator to 04N between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to
northwestern Cuba, then continues as a stationary front across the
Yucatan Channel to over the Yucatan Peninsula. Patchy showers are
occurring near and up to 80 nm northwest of this boundary. A
surface trough is triggering similar conditions at the west-
central Gulf and Bay of Campeche. A 1029 mb high over the Florida
Panhandle is dominating the northern Gulf with gentle to moderate
easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present across
the southwestern and southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. Mainly moderate ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds across the southwestern and southeastern
Gulf will continue to diminish overnight as the front continues
to move away from the Gulf. Elsewhere winds and seas should
subside further through Sun as the high builds southwestward.
Mainly light to gentle variable winds are expected for the entire
Gulf Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop
across the western half of the gulf on Tue, then become strong
Tue night through Wed ahead of the next frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section regarding an ongoing
Gale Warning.

The western end of a shear line reaches westward from the Windward
Islands to the central basin near 14N71W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 120 nm north of
this feature. A 1026 mb mid-Atlantic high is sustaining a trade-
wind regime for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area at
the south-central basin, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds with
8 to 11 ft seas are present. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to
fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail for the remainder
of the basin, including the Windward Passage and waters just
south of Cuba.

For the forecast, the mid-Atlantic high will weaken through Mon
as a cold front moves SE across the western Atlantic, with
reinforcing high pressure building behind it north of the
Caribbean basin. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong
easterly trades across most of the basin through Mon, including
the Windward Passage and lee of eastern Cuba. Higher seas in
mixed N and NE swell across the tropical Atlantic waters will
subside Mon night. Strong trade winds east of the Leeward Islands
will diminish to fresh Sun night through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
large northerly swell and rough seas.

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N64W through the northwest Bahamas and Florida Straits.
Scattered showers and patchy rain are occurring along and up to
120 nm northwest of the front. At the central Atlantic, a
dissipating occluded front curves southward from a 1014 mb low at
24N42W through 27N40W to 24N38W, then continues southwestward as
a dissipating cold front to 18N41W. A shear line continues west-
southwestward from 18N41W across 14N50W and the Windward Islands.
Enhanced by a TUTT cell in the vicinity near 24N43W, scattered
moderate convection is persisting from 19N to 29N between 30W and
41W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen
from the cold front westward to the Georgia/Florida coast, north
of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
exist from the cold front southward to 23N between 55W and the
central Bahamas. Other than the large northerly swell and rough
seas mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh
with locally strong easterly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are evident
north of 23N between 35W and 45W. To the southwest, moderate to
fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted from 03N
to 23N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas. Near
the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found north
of 10N between the African coast and 35W. Light to gentle winds
along with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds will
prevail south of 21N through early Mon as the high drifts
northeastward and weakens. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail
behind the front, then gradually veer to the E and diminish
through Sun evening as the front reaches from 30N55W to just north
of the NW Bahamas, and then stalls. The next cold front is
forecast to emerge off the northeastern Florida coast on Mon
morning, then lift north of the area Mon night. In response, a
the high pressure will recenter east of the northwest Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds associated with the front will
affect the western Atlantic waters near 29N through early Wed.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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