[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Feb 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern
Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at
daytime, and gale-force at night in the south-central Caribbean
through at least Wed. Seas under the strongest winds will range
from 12 to 14 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly gale-force winds will
linger at the western Bay of Campeche offshore of Veracruz until
Sat morning. Seas ranging from 15 to 18 ft are expected with the
strongest winds overnight. Conditions will gradually improve
across the western Bay of Campeche by mid Sat morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for
more details on the above events.

Central Atlantic Large Swell: Large long-period northerly swell
behind a stationary front are going to generate seas of 11 to 13
ft north of 26N between 39W and 45W through Sat. Subsiding swell
should allow seas to drop below 12 ft on Sat evening. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed to be inland over Africa. An ITCZ
extends westward from 04N13W across 00N25W to north of Sao Luis,
Brazil at 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the
Equator to 06N between 11W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from central Florida to the central
Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are occurring along and up to
110 nm northwest of the front. Outside the Gale Warning area,
strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas at 11 to 15 ft are
present at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to strong northerly winds with 7 to 11 ft seas are found
across the west-central and north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist at the northwestern
and northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida
Straits and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will move eastward and
exit the Gulf early Sat, allowing winds and seas to diminish Sat
night. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will develop
across the gulf on Sun, providing mainly light to gentle variable
winds for the entire Gulf through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE
winds will develop across the western half of the gulf on Tue
ahead of the next frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning.

The western end of a persistent shear line reaches westward from
the northern Windward Islands to south of Hispaniola near 15N71W.
This feature along with convergent trade winds are producing
patchy showers across the northern basin, except the Gulf of
Honduras and waters south of Cuba. Otherwise, a 1030 Bermuda High
continues to channel NE to ENE trades across the entire basin.
Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale ENE winds and
seas at 10 to 12 ft are found at the south-central basin. Fresh to
locally strong NE to ENE winds with 7 to 10 ft seas are noted
across the north-central and northeastern basin. Moderate to fresh
NE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present at the
southeastern and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds
with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will sustain fresh to strong
easterly trades across most of the basin through Wed, including
the Windward Passage. Winds will pulse nightly to gale force off
the coast of Colombia through Mon night, however strong to near-
gale force winds will continue through the remaining forecast
period. Higher seas in mixed N and NE swell across the tropical
Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Strong trade winds east
of the Leeward Islands will diminish to fresh Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning on
large northerly swell and rough seas.

A cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolina coast
across 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 60 nm
northwest of this boundary. At the central Atlantic, a stationary
front curves southwestward from southwest of the Azores through
31N37W to near 21N43W, then continues west-southwestward as a
shear line through the northern Windward Islands. Enhanced by a
TUTT cell near 27N42W, scattered moderate convection is flaring up
near the stationary front north of 20N between 36W and 44W.
Patchy showers are occurring along and up to 70 nm north of the
shear line. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

At the central Atlantic other than the area mentioned in the
Special Features section, fresh with locally strong NNE winds and
seas of 9 to 11 ft are noted north of 21N between the stationary
front/39W and 50W. To the east, moderate to fresh SE winds with 8
to 10 ft seas exist north of 20N between 33W and the stationary
front/39W. Farther southwest, mainly fresh NE to ENE trades with
seas at 9 to 11 ft prevail from the shear line/16N to 25N between
50W and the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh SE to S to NW
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident near the cold front north
of 27N between 70W and the Georgia/northeast Florida coast. Near
the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NNE to NE trades with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted north
of 07N between the African coast and 33W/47W. To the west,
moderate with locally fresh ENE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
found from 05N to the shear line/16N between 47W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the 1030 mb Bermuda High and its
associated broad surface ridge will maintain fresh to strong
winds south of 24N into Sat morning. As the high drifts
northeastward, these winds should retreat to south of 22N through
early Mon. As the cold front moves farther away from the
Georgia/Florida coast, strong southerly winds are expected ahead
of the front, N of 28N through Sat. The front will reach from
near 31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida on Sat morning, with strong
northerly winds behind it. Winds will then begin to veer and
gradually diminish as the front reaches from 31N57W to the
northwest Bahamas Sun morning, and then stalls. Weak high
pressure will then prevail through early next week.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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