[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure over northwestern
Colombia will induce NE to ENE strong to near-gale force winds at
daytime, and pulses to gale-force each night in the south-central
Caribbean through at least Wed. Seas under the strongest winds
will range from 12 to 14 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Northerly gale-force winds prevail
across the Bay of Campeche behind a strong cold front that
extends from the Florida Big Bend to 19N93W. Seas to 18 ft are
expected with the strongest winds tonight. Conditions will
gradually improve across the west-central Gulf and the Bay of
Campeche on Sat morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ marine/offshores.php for
more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ
extends from 07N14W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N southward between 10W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front extends from the central Florida Big Bend to
the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force N winds follow the
front, except for gale-force winds across the Veracruz offshore
waters. Seas are up to 18 ft behind the front with the strongest
winds. Light to gentle SE to S winds and seas to 6 ft are ahead
of the front.

For the forecast, the front will move E and exit the basin early
on Sat, with winds and seas diminishing Sat night. Surface high
pressure and associated ridging will develop across the gulf on
Sun providing mainly light to gentle variable winds basin-wide
through Mon night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop across
the western half of the gulf on Tue ahead of the next frontal
system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Ridging from the 1027 mb Bermuda high centered near 32N57W
extends southward into the northern Caribbean, thus resulting in a
tight pressure gradient across the region that is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds S of 20N and E of 82W, where seas are
up to 8 ft. In the far eastern Caribbean, a shearline extends
across the Leeward Islands to 16N68W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are present south of the shearline, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft,
except for up to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh ESE winds prevail elsewhere with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the 1027 mb high pressure center E of Bermuda
is producing a broad subtropical ridge across the region, and will
sustain fresh to strong easterly trades across most of the basin
E of 82W through early Mon, including the Windward Passage. Winds
will pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through
early next week. High seas in mixed N and NE swell across the
tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon night. Strong trade
winds prevailing east of the Leeward Islands will diminish to
fresh speeds Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches across the Central Atlantic from
31N37W to 20N47W, where it transitions to a shearline and
continues across the Leeward Islands near 16N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 70 nm on either side of the
front north of 22N. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SE to S
winds are found in a recent ASCAT pass within 200 nm north of
26N. The pressure gradient between a shearline and the Bermuda
high continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong winds
over the SW N Atlantic waters S of 30N where seas range from 8 to
12 ft.

Fresh to strong S winds are ongoing off the NE coast of Florida
north of 25N eastward to 72W ahead of a strong cold front that
will enter the region tonight. Seas in this area are up to 8 ft.
Otherwise, with the exception of locally fresh NE winds between
the Cape Verde Islands and the W coast of Africa, moderate NE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge will maintain fresh to
strong winds S of 24N into Sat morning, then shrink to S of 22N
through early Mon as the high drifts NE. The cold front will
enter the waters off NE Florida tonight. The pressure gradient
between the high and the front will support strong winds ahead of
the frontal boundary, N of 28N, tonight through Sat as the frontal
boundary moves eastward. Strong northerly winds will prevail
behind the front through Sat morning as it reach from near 31N73W
to Palm Beach, Florida. Winds will then begin to veer and
gradually diminish as the front continues eastward, and reaches
from 31N57W to the NW Bahamas Sun morning, and then stalls. Weak
high pressure will then prevail through early next week.

$$
ERA
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