[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 17 2023

Corrected Caribbean Sea section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and relatively lower pressure in
South America will induce NE to E gale-force winds in the south-
central Caribbean Sea, primarily over the waters offshore
Colombia every night through early next week. During the day,
winds will remain strong to near-gale force. Seas with the gale-
force winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
southwestern Louisiana southwestward to 26N95W and to inland
Mexico just N of Tampico. The front is slowly moving E. Observations
from buoys and platforms are reporting fresh to strong N winds
behind the front and seas of 8-10 ft. These winds are forecast to
further increase reaching gale-force offshore Tampico, Mexico
this evening, then spread S to offshore the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico, overnight. The gale conditions in the western Bay of
Campeche will persist into Fri night. Seas in this area will
build to near 16 ft by Fri afternoon. Conditions will improve
across the basin Sat night into Sun. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
02N15W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between
20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the
ITCZ between 26W-30W and within 30 nm N of the ITCZ between
28W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning that is in effect for some sections of the western
Gulf.

Fresh to strong SE to S return flow around the western periphery
of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure is occurring to the E
of the cold front described in the Special Features section. Seas
are in the range of 5-7 ft E of the front to near 87W, and 4-6 ft
E of 87W.

Both satellite and NWS Doppler radar imagery show increasing
scattered showers and thunderstorms along a strong cold front
that extends from southwestern Louisiana to Louisiana southwestward
to 26N95W and to inland Mexico just N of Tampico. A few of the
thunderstorms may be on the strong side.

For the forecast, aside from conditions described above under
Special Features, the fresh to strong SE to S winds ahead of
the front will become gentle to moderate S to SW winds ahead
of the cold front on Fri as it reaches from northern Florida
southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche. But before it
does that, the front will briefly become stationary tonight
before it once again continues eastward starting late tonight.
The cold front will weaken as it reaches the southeastern Gulf
late Fri night, shifting SE of the basin early on Sat. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds are behind the front, outside the gale
condition areas. Winds will become fresh from the NE S of about
25N Sat evening and gentle to moderate E winds on Sun as the
front dissipates just SE of the area. In general, overall marine
conditions are set to improve from Sat evening into Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters offshore
Colombia.

Outside of the gale conditions that are described above, fresh
to strong trade winds were indicated by the latest ASCAT data
passes over the eastern and central Caribbean sections, with
moderate to fresh trade winds in the western Caribbean, with the
exception of fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras.
Trade winds become SE in direction N of 18N and W of 80W. Seas
are in the 6-9 ft range in the basin, except for higher seas of
10-13 ft S of 15N between 72W-80W, including the Gale Warning
area offshore Colombia. Lower seas of 5-6 ft N of 18N and W of
80W.

For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge centered
to the N of the area will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds through early next week. An area of northerly swell
propagating through the topical Atlantic is forecast to linger
through the weekend. Winds will increase to strong east of the
Leeward Islands tonight into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from a 1012 mb low that is N of the area
near 34N38W, south-southwest from the low to 27N41W and to
23N49W, where it transitions to a shear line that continues to
20N58W, to just N of Puerto Rico and to the northeastern coast
of the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are within 90 nm SE of the front from 24N to 28N.
Isolated showers are within 120 nm E of the front N of 28N.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible along the shear line.
Latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong N to NE winds
behind the front and mostly strong NE to E winds N of the shear
line to near 22N. Seas behind the front and shear line are in
the 8-12 ft range. Moderate SE return flow and seas of 4-7 ft
prevail over the western Atlantic, with the lowest of the seas
located between the Bahamas and Florida. Fresh to strong NE
winds are noted in the far eastern Atlantic, becoming moderate
to fresh trades west of 35W. Seas east of 35W are 8-10 ft due to
a long-period NE swell, and 4-7 ft in the elsewhere waters west
of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W: Although the shear line will dissipate
late tonight or early on Fri, high pressure building N of the
area will allow for the strong winds that are N of the shear
line to continue into Sat, with seas increasing to a peak of
about 11 ft. A cold front is forecast to move over the waters
off NE Florida early Fri evening. Strong winds are expected both
E and W of this cold front N of 28N through Sat as it moves
eastward.

$$
Aguirre
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