[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and lower pressure near northwestern Colombia will
sustain strong to near-gale force winds at the south-central
Caribbean Sea, just north of the Colombia coast through Tue night.
These winds are expected to peak at gale-force during nighttime.
Seas under these winds will be 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
enter the northwestern Gulf on Thu morning, then move
southeastward through Fri night. Northerly winds will increase to
between strong and near-gale force at the west-central Gulf by
Thu late afternoon, then reach gale-force offshore from Tampico,
Mexico by early evening. Strong to gale-force winds will
spread southward to the western Bay of Campeche, including
offshore from Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri morning. Seas at the
west-central Gulf should build to between 10 and 13 ft by late
Thu night, then peak at 13 to 17 ft and spread to the western Bay
of Campeche on Fri.

For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Central Atlantic Large Northerly Swell: Large, long-period NW
swell is generating seas of 12 to 13 ft north of 29N between 47W
and 56W. As this swell continues to subside on Thu, seas should
drop below 12 ft by early Thu evening.

Gulf of Mexico Dense Fog: Southeasterly return flow has brought
abundant moisture across the west-central and northwestern Gulf.
With night time surface temperatures dropping to the lower 70s,
dense marine fog has formed in these areas. Latest marine
observations indicate visibility ranges from 2.5 to 5 SM. As
temperatures gradually rise after sunrise, this fog should
dissipate later Thu morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of the Africa monsoon trough is near the Guinea-
Bissau coast, no significant convection is present. An ITCZ
extends westward from 02N15W across 00N28W to 01S42W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 04N between 10W
and the Brazilian coast near Sao Luis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning and
dense fog.

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from northern Florida
to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong southeasterly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the
western and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and
seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the
Florida Straits.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will continue in
the western and central Gulf in advance of a cold front which
will emerge off Texas Thu morning. Strong to near-gale force N
winds can be expected behind the front in the western and central
Gulf Thu into Sat. Gales will develop offshore Tampico, Mexico,
Thu evening, then spread southward to off the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico, overnight Thu. The gales in the western Bay of Campeche
will persist into Fri night. Seas in this area will build to near
17 ft by Fri afternoon. Conditions will improve Sat night into
Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A 1029 mb Bermuda High continues to support a fair NE to ESE
trade- wind pattern across the entire basin. Outside the Gale
Warning area, strong to near-gale NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh with
locally strong ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist for the north
central basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are
evident at the eastern and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate
ESE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the persistent Bermuda High will sustain fresh
to strong easterly trades through the forecast period. Winds will
pulse nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia through
early next week. An area of northerly swell will enter the
tropical Atlantic Thu, then persist into the weekend. Winds will
increase to strong east of the Leeward Islands Thu night into
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about large NW swell at
the central Atlantic.

A modest cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N44W to 24N54W, then continues westward as a
shear line to near the southeast Bahamas. Enhanced by a pronounced
mid- latitude trough in the vicinity, Scattered moderate
convection is flaring up near and up to 180 nm southeast of the
front north of 24N. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along
either side of the rest of the front and shear line. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Other than the area impacted by the large swell, gentle to moderate
SE to SW to NW winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are seen near the cold
front north of 25N between 45W and 63W. To the west, moderate to
fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are found north of
20N between 63W and 73W. Farther west, gentle to moderate E to SE
winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft exist from the central Bahamas
northward, between 73W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Near the
Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong NNE trades with 9
to 12 ft seas are evident north of 15N between the African coast
and 45W. To the south, moderate to locally fresh NE trades and
seas of 6 to 9 ft are present from 04N to 20N/25N between the
22W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly winds with
4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned modest cold front
will devolve completely into a shear line later tonight. This
shear line will gradually dissipate Thu. A building ridge north of
the area will strengthen the trades to strong south of 25N into
Sat, with seas in this zone increasing to 11 ft. A cold front is
forecast to reach the waters off northeastern Florida late Fri.
This will support strong winds ahead and behind the frontal
boundary Fri through Sat as the frontal boundary moves eastward,
mainly N of 28N.

$$

Forecaster Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net