[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A western Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is
near 29N75W, is combining with the comparatively lower surface
pressures that are in Colombia, in order to support a modest
surface pressure gradient in the south central Caribbean Sea.
Expect fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, and sea heights to
range from 8 feet to 10 feet, between 70W and 80W. The wind speeds
will pulse to gale force, briefly, off the coast of Colombia each
night through Friday, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure
center moves eastward. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to
11 feet, during the periods of the comparatively fastest wind
speeds. The forecast sea heights for Thursday morning will range
from 10 feet to 13 feet from 11N to 12N between 75W and 78W.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to
03N19W, crossing the Equator along 22W, to 04S31W and 03S35W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends toward the west-southwest, from an
Atlantic Ocean 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N75W,
across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of
Mexico near 24N98W.

Strong SE wind flow has been covering the western two-thirds of
the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds have been in the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating stationary front was in the Texas
coastal plains. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to
7 feet from 23N northward between 87W and 92W. The sea heights
have been ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 25N northward from
92W westward, and from 5 feet to 7 feet from 20N to 25N from 90W
westward. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet
in the remainder of the area.

The subtropical ridge centered east of Florida extends westward
into the Gulf of Mexico and will continue shifting eastward into
Wed. Fresh SE to S flow will dominate the waters into Wed. The
next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast Thu morning with
strong N winds behind it, spreading across the western and central
Gulf into early Sat. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico,
Mexico, Thu evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night into
Fri night. Seas in this area will build to near 17 ft by Fri
afternoon. Conditions improve on Sat into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning that was issued for the coastal waters of
Colombia.

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba to the western coastal
waters of Jamaica. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
17N to 20N between the Windward Passage and 81W.

The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet within
150 nm of the coast of Colombia, and they have been ranging from
5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere within 330 nm of the coast of Colombia.
The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere. Strong to near gale-force NE winds have been in the
Gulf of Venezuela from 12N southward from 71W westward. Fresh to
strong NE winds are in the central one-third of the area, from
20N southward from 83W westward to the north of Honduras, and
moving through the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

A strong pressure gradient will persist across the south central
Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, supporting fresh to
strong easterly trades. Winds will pulse to gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night into early next week. Elsewhere,
large NE to E swell with seas to 10 ft is over the tropical N
Atlantic. Winds and seas in this region will slowly diminish
through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N56W, to 26N60W and 21N71W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 285 nm to the east and east-southeast of the cold front
from 24N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 500 nm to the east and the east-southeast of
the rest of the cold front. The sea heights have been ranging
from 7 feet to 10 feet from the cold front northward, and they
have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet from 25N southward between
60W and 70W. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 8
feet from 20N southward from 50W westward.

A dissipating cold front is along 31N14W to 28N20W and 28N26W.
A surface trough continues from 28N26W to 29N39W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from the frontal boundary/surface trough
northward from 40W eastward. Strong NE winds are from 09N
northward from 26W eastward, and from 05N to 23N between 26W and
48W. Moderate to fresh E-to-SE winds are from 25N northward
between 26W and 40W. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from
50W eastward. The exception is for sea heights that range from4
feet to 7 feet to the southeast of the line that runs from SE
Senegal to 03N30W.

Gentle anticyclonic wind speeds are within a radius of 150 nm of
the 29N75W high pressure center. Fresh NE winds are from 22N
southward between the 31N56W 21N71W cold front and SE Cuba.
Moderate NE-to-E winds are elsewhere from 70W westward. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is to the
north of the 31N56W 21N71W cold front. Gentle NE winds are from
18N to the cold front between 54W and 66W. Moderate NE winds are
from 14N to 18N between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 14N
southward from 50W westward. Strong southerly winds are within
460 nm of the cold front from 28N northward. Mostly moderate and
some fresh southerly winds are from 23N to 28N between 40W and
55W.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to just E of the Turks and
Caicos and will continue moving eastward over the next couple of
days, exiting the basin Wed night. N of 28N and E of 60W, strong
winds and rough seas behind the front will prevail to night. A
building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south
of 25N Wed night into Fri night.

$$
MT/sk
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