[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141729 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

High pressure across Florida and the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
continues to support a modest pressure gradient across the south
central Caribbean, producing fresh to strong NE to E trades
between 70W and 80W. Gale-force winds occurring within 90 nm of
the northern coast of Colombia between 74.5W and 75.5W overnight have
persisted into this morning, and are expected to diminish to
around 30 kt through this afternoon. Seas across this area are
8-10 ft, with 8-9 ft seas extending west and southwestward to
near 10N78.5W. Winds will pulse briefly to gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Fri as high pressure
currently located over Florida slides eastward and into the
western Atlantic. Seas will range 8 to 11 ft during the periods of
strongest winds. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

East Atlantic Gale Warning:

Northerly winds on the west side of a southward drifting low
pressure are likely to increase over the next 24 hours, bringing
the threat of gale conditions to Meteo- France zone Madeira Wed.

Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08.5N14W and continues SW to near 05N17W. The
ITCZ extends westward from 01N21W to 00N28W to the Brazilian
coast at 02.5N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
60 nm of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted along the ITCZ, from 02.5N to 03S between 18W
and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed across northern Florida
near located near 29.5N82W, and extends northward across the
eastern seaboard of the U.S. The pressure gradient between the
associated ridge and low pressure across the Southern Plains
continues to produce strong southerly return flow across the
western Gulf W of 90W. This pattern has prevailed through the
overnight hours, and seas have built to 8-11 ft across most of the
NW Caribbean this morning, based on recent buoy observations.
Gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails elsewhere across the E
half of the basin, where seas area generally 2-4 ft. Skies are
generally clear to partly cloudy across most of the basin, except
for broken to overcast multi-layered stratus across NW portions,
where patchy light rain is likely.

For the forecast, the high pressure over northern Florida will
continue shifting eastward today. Strong southerly winds will
prevail in the NW Gulf into late today. The next cold front will
emerge off the Texas coast Thu morning with strong N winds behind
it, spreading across the western and central Gulf into the
weekend. Gale conditions are expected near Tampico, Mexico, Thu
evening and offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu night through Fri. Seas
will build to near 17 ft behind the front by Fri night.
Conditions improve on Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Features section for details.

A dissipating cold front extends southwestward through the
Windward Passage to the northern coastal waters of Jamaica.
Isolated showers are possible across the waters between Jamaica
and Cuba. along the frontal boundary. Fresh NE winds are assumed
to be occurring in the Windward Passage and also in the lee of
eastern Cuba. Elsewhere fresh to strong trades dominate the south
central Caribbean south of 14N, while moderate trades generally
extend northward to 16N to the E of 80W. Seas are 8-10 ft across
SW portions, 3-6 ft to the E of 70W, and 2-4 ft across NW
portions. Fair weather prevails across the basin this morning.
Cool air behind the dissipating front produced regionally cold
overnight low temperatures across the islands of the NW Caribbean,
with Kingston, Jamaica reporting a low of 68 F, Havana, Cuba a
low of 46 F, and large portions of eastern interior Cuba in the
mid 40s F.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trades over the south
central Caribbean will prevail through the forecast period, and
will expand northward to near Hispaniola tonight through Sat.
Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia each
night through Fri. Elsewhere, large NE to E swell with seas to 11
ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. Winds and seas in this region
will slowly diminish through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic cold front extends southwestward from near
31N60W to the Turks and Caicos Islands, then continues as a
dissipating boundary through the Windward Passage. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms occurring along and within 210 nm E of
the front to the N of 26N, with isolated showers elsewhere along
the front E of 70W. Morning scatterometer winds showed fresh SW
winds ahead of the front and N of 26N, and fresh NW behind the
front N of 27.5N. Seas are 8-11 ft in this area E of the front,
and 8-12 ft behind the front to 73W and N of 25N. Elsewhere, high
pressure of 1019 mb is across N Florida and extends a modest ridge
ESE to the front. Winds and variable at 10 kt or less to the W of
70W, with seas quickly diminishing to the W of 73W, to 2-3 ft
offshore of Florida. E of the front, strong high pressure
prevails, centered on a 1033 mb high just SW of the Azores. Fresh
to locally strong tradewinds are south of 22N and E of 50W, where
seas are 8-11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail
elsewhere between 50W and the cold front, with seas generally 5-8
ft.

Another cold front enters the forecast region near 31N20W and
continues to near 28N30W. Moderate to fresh NE winds generally
prevail S of 25N, from offshore of Africa to 30W. Seas are 6-9 ft
in mixed swell across these waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic will continue
moving eastward over the next couple of days, exiting the basin by
Wed night. N of 27N and E of 65W, strong winds and rough seas in
association with this front will prevail into tonight.
Strengthening high pressure will build a strong ridge north of
the area through Fri, and act to strengthen the trades south of
25N Wed night into Fri night.

$$
Stripling
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