[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING:
Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure at northwestern Colombia will continue to support NE to E
winds near the coast of Colombia through Sat. These winds will be
strong during the day, and reach near-gale to gale force at
night. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft.

Western Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING:
A strong cold front moving eastward across the western Atlantic is
going to sustain strong to gale winds southwest of Bermuda near
30N through this afternoon. Sea under these winds will peak at 13
to 17 ft. Winds should begin to decrease this evening, while seas
will gradually subside later tonight.

For both Gale Warnings, please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of the Africa monsoon trough ends just off the
coast, near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border. An ITCZ stretches
westward from 04N16W through 00N30W to near the Brazilian coast at
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough
from 03N to 05N between 10W and 16W, and up to 180 nm north of
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure over the central Gulf near 26N92W is
dominating the entire Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to
4 ft are present across the western and central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail the rest of
the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, under the influence of the high pressure,
subsiding seas are expected across the eastern Gulf today. In the
wake of this high, southerly return flow will develop tonight in
the northwestern Gulf, with strong S winds expected to prevail
through Tue night. The next cold front will emerge off of the
Texas coast Thu morning, strong N winds behind it will probably
affect the western Gulf through this weekend. Also, gale
conditions are possible offshore Veracruz Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a GALE
WARNING.

A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from eastern
Cuba across the Cayman Islands to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 90 nm northwest of the
front. Otherwise, a 1026 mb central Atlantic high will continue to
provide a trade- wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to
strong ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are found at the south-
central basin, just north of Colombia. Fresh with locally strong
ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident for the north-central
basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
noted at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central
Caribbean will diminish slightly this afternoon through Tue
afternoon. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Fri. The stationary front will be
dissipated by this evening. Elsewhere, large E swell with seas to
10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. This swell will gradually
subside into tonight. A building ridge north of the area will
strengthen the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a GALE
WARNING.

A cold front extends southwestward from west of Bermuda across
31N69W and the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up near and up to 120 nm
east of the front. Another cold front curves westward from near
the Azores across 31N33W to 29N46W. Patchy showers are seen near
this feature north of 28N between 33W and 46W. Convergent trade
winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
near the French Guiana and Suriname coast. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area north of 25N, fresh to strong
westerly winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft are found between the first
cold front and 79W; moderate to fresh NW winds with 5 to 8 ft
seas are between 79W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the east,
fresh to strong southerly winds and seas at 9 to 12 ft are present
north of 26N between 62W and the cold front. Despite light to
gentle winds near the 1026 mn high near 28N48W, large northerly
swell are creating 6 to 9 ft seas north of 24N between the Canary
Islands and 62W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades
and seas of 5 to 9 ft are seen from 03N to 25N/26N between the
central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate
monsoonal winds with 4 tofrom near 31N69W to eastern Cuba 7 ft
seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the first cold front will move east and cross
the basin through mid-week. Strong winds and rough seas will occur
on both sides of the front, mainly north of 25N through Tue.
North of 29N, gales are expected east of the front through this
afternoon. A building ridge north of the area will strengthen the
trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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