[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical Atlantic high and Colombia Low will continue to
support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through midweek next week.
Seas with these winds will range from 10 to 13 ft.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from
a 1014 mb low just south of the Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay
of Campeche. A 1032 mb high behind this front over southern Texas
and northern Mexico will sustaining gale winds and 14 to 17 ft
seas offshore from Veracruz, Mexico through early this afternoon.
In addition, the aforementioned 1014 mb now is forecast to
strengthen and introduce strong to gale winds with 11 to 14 ft
seas at the northeastern Gulf this evening through early Sun.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal 1014 mb low currently
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually strengthen,
while track northeastward across northern Florida and southern
Georgia up the eastern seaboard of the United States Sun and Mon.
This process will bring strong to gale-force winds N of 29N on
both sides of the front from Sun evening through Mon night
between 77W and 65W. Seas in and near these gales will peak
between 12 and 16 ft.

For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enter the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast
near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border, then extends southwestward
to 02N19W. No significant convection is seen near the trough. An
ITCZ then continues westward from 02N19W through 01N30W to 03N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm north of the
ITCZ between 27W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on two
Gale Warnings.

A stationary front reaches westward from north of Tampa, Florida
to a 1014 low just south of the Florida Panhandle. A cold front
extends southwestward from this low to the eastern Bay Campeche.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
the low over the northeastern Gulf, and also near and up to 120 nm
east of the cold front. Patchy rain is seen up to 80 nm west of
the cold front. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-
gale northerly winds and seas of 10 to 14 ft are present across
the western Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds with 7 to 10 ft seas
are found at the central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong cyclonic
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail at the
southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, ongoing gales offshore from Veracruz, Mexico
will prevail the rest of this morning. Tonight, the low will move
northeastward out of the Gulf while strengthening, and W gales
are forecast to develop in the NE Gulf in its wake. Winds and seas
should gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun
evening. In the extended range, strong to near gale SE to S return
flow should develop over the western Gulf beginning Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

A large dome of 1026 nm high at the central Atlantic continues to
sustain a easterly trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Patchy
trade-wind showers are evident near the central basin, and east of
the Nicaragua coast. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to
strong E winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft exist at the north-central
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
found at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue
over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through the weekend. A
cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, extend from
western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, then dissipate
by Mon. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front in the
northwestern basin on Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, large and
long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical
North Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and
will continue today and Sun before gradually subsiding Mon. In the
extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen
the E to SE trades in the northwestern Caribbean by Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas.

A stationary front reaches west-southwestward from off the
Carolina coast across 31N79W to northern Florida. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between
77W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. A 1014 mb low is
triggering scattered showers south of the Azores, north of 25N
between 27W and 35W. A surface trough is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Brazilian coast near
Belem. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh N winds and 9 to 11 ft seas in
northerly swell are present southwest of the Azores, north of 22N
between 34W and 47W. Near the Canary Islands, a 1018 mb high is
providing light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft north of 20N
between the northwest African coast and 34W. Farther west, the
Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas north of 24N between 47W and the aforementioned cold front.
To the south, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas of 7 to 11 ft
are noted from 05N to 22N/24N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles.
Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found north of 05N to 20N between the
central African coast and 40W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds
with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a low pressure and its associated cold
front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida late
tonight. As the low moves northeast away from the area, the cold
front will drag across the W Atlantic. It will reach from just
west of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon morning, from just east of
Bermuda to Hispaniola Tue morning, and from 27N55W to 23N65W Wed
morning. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of
the front, mainly N of 26N through Tue. North of 29N, gales are
expected on both sides of the front Sun through Mon. Elsewhere,
large and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 9 ft are
occurring south of 23N and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
This swell is affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser
Antilles and will continue today before gradually subsiding.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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