[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091805 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Feb 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 32N70W 1029
mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, and the comparatively
lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will
continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia. The sea
heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 14 feet in the
areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. It is likely for
these marine conditions to continue into the upcoming weekend.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Gulf of Mexico GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A second cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late
tonight or early on Friday morning. The second front will merge
with the current central Gulf cold front. The merged front will
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the NW Yucatan Peninsula by
Friday night, and from near Tampa in Florida to the Yucatan
Channel by Saturday afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds are
expected near Tampico in Mexico on Friday afternoon, and
offshore Veracruz in Mexico late on Friday afternoon, through
early Saturday. It is possible that gale-force winds also may
continue in the SW Gulf of Mexico into Saturday morning. Rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially in the
the corner of the area. The forecast consists of northerly winds
from 30 knots to 40 knots, and the sea heights ranging from 16
feet to 17 feet. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

A cold front passes through 31N45W to 26N52W. A stationary front
continues from 26N52W to 23N61W. The sea heights of 8 feet are
reaching the Equator, and the coastal areas of South America,
from 10N60W southeastward. Some areas of sea heights that have
been ranging from 11 feet to 16 feet are from 20N northward from
56W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds cover most of the areas
that are from 25W westward. Large and long-period northerly
swell is moving through most of the Atlantic Ocean forecast
waters. This swell event is reaching the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles and the Atlantic Ocean passages of the NE Caribbean
Sea, and the waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands.
The high seas are creating hazardous marine conditions. This
front will be reinforcing in the Atlantic Ocean by Friday
evening, with more pulses of long- period NW swell to be
affecting the forecast waters. The sea heights are forecast to
subside to less than 12 feet today. The new swell event will
move into the northern waters that are between 35W and 55W on
Friday, with the sea heights building to 11 feet or 12 feet. It
is possible that a developing low pressure system that is near
the coast of Georgia may push the sea heights to 12 feet or
greater in the waters that are from 27N northward from 70W
westward, on Sunday. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Guinea
near 09N13W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to
01N30W, to the Equator along 48W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the
line that runs from Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N31W, to the
coast of French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING.

A cold front passes through the north central Gulf of Mexico, to
the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at the coast of Mexico near
20N97W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 360 nm to the southeast of the cold front from
23N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 23N northward
from the cold front eastward. High pressure is building into the
areas that are to the west of the cold front.

Fresh NW winds are in the NW Gulf in the wake of the front.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are to the east of the front.
Fresh to strong east winds, and sea heights that are reaching to
8 feet, are in the Straits of Florida. The sea heights have been
ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet behind the front. The sea heights
have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet to the east of the cold
front.

A cold front extends from the coast of Mississippi to
Tuxpan, Mexico near 20N97W. A band of showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front is located over the central to north-
central Gulf of Mexico. The front will reach from the western
Florida panhandle to the south-central Bay of Campeche this
evening and stall. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf
late Thu night or early Fri morning, and merge with the stalling
front. The merged front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the
central Bay of Campeche Fri evening, and from near the Florida
Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale
force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and
offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon through Sat morning.
Gales are also forecast to persist over the central Bay of
Campeche through Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. Low pressure is
likely to form along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE Gulf.
Gale force winds are possible near this low pres over the NE Gulf
Sat and Sat night before it moves over land toward the Georgia
coast. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E late
Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING.

Strong to gale-force winds have been near the coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong trade winds have been covering the remainder of
the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
locally strong winds have been in the Windward Passage, between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba. The sea
heights have been ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet in the south
central Caribbean Sea and mostly closer to Colombia, from 9 feet
to 10 feet elsewhere from Hispaniola southward, from 8 feet to 9
feet in the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern
Cuba, reaching 8 feet in the Gulf of Honduras, and from 5 feet
to 7 feet in the remainder of the area.

Areas of shallow moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind
flow, are moving through the area. Expect isolated to widely
scattered passing rainshowers. The comparatively most intense
precipitation with the greatest amount of coverage has been
happening from Jamaica northwestward and westward.

Strong trade winds will continue over the central
and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee
of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras through Fri night, strongest at
night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun.
Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.

The rest of the information that is about the sea heights and
the wind speeds is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A stationary front extends from 24.5N55W to 23N61W.
The front will remain nearly stationary along 22N-23N through
this evening while weakening. Large and long period northerly
swell, with seas up to 14 ft follow the front. This swell is
affecting areas from the Bahamas to the Hispaniola to the Lesser
Antilles and will continue to affect these areas through Fri
night before gradually subsiding. Fresh to strong trade winds
are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and
Windward Passage through Fri night. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will move off NE Florida by early Sat. A low pressure is
expected to develop along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE
Gulf of Mexico and move to just off the coast of Georgia by Sat
evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front across
the forecast region Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near
gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of
the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force westerly winds
possible north of 30N on Sun and Sun night.

$$
mt/ah
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net