[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
Panama and NW Colombia will sustain nighttime gale-force winds in
the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia,
through midweek. Seas are forecast to peak near 11 to 12 ft
during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more information.

Atlantic Gale Warning: An area of low pressure developed off the
SE US Coast. A recent satellite scatterometer pass detected gale
force winds over the NE quadrant of the low, north of 28N. The
low pressure is forecast to move NE, strengthen, and will
continue to produce gale-force winds tonight into Mon morning N
of 30N between 69W and 76W. Seas are 10 to 12 ft. Winds will
diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from
31N43W to 27N57W. Large and long-period swell is analyzed
between 45W and 60W from 25N to 31N and continues north of the
discussion area. Swell direction is NW, with a period of 12-16
seconds. Aside from the swell, fresh, locally strong NE winds
follow the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ
begins at 05N19W and continues to 02S30W to 01N40W and to
00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N
between 21W and 28W. Similar convection is within 60 nm of the
ITCZ between 36W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is weakening across the eastern half of the
basin, where a trough has developed just W of the Florida
Peninsula, stretching from Pensacola, FL, to the NW tip of Cuba.
A recent scatterometer pass revealed light to gentle winds
surrounding the trough. A 1023 mb high off the coast of southern
Louisiana supports mainly moderate N-NE flow between 85W and 91W
with moderate E to SE flow west of 91W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
across the basin, except within 60 nm of the coast, seas are 3
ft or less.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue building across the
basin from west to east. As the high moves E of the area, fresh
to locally strong SE to S return flow will develop Mon night
into Tue, with the strongest winds occurring in the western
Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed,
with strong to near-gale N winds possible behind it and quickly
diminishing as the front reaches the central Gulf late Wed into
early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the ongoing Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A strong high-pressure system centered north of the Caribbean
Sea supports fresh to strong trades across the eastern, central,
and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas are 7-8 ft across
these regions, except for slightly higher seas to 10 ft off NW
Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 4 ft are
across the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will continue
across the central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
Strong trade winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean
Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into late this
week. Seas will build to near 13 ft during the strongest winds.
Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola
and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Building ridge will result in fresh to strong winds in
the NW Caribbean Tue into Wed, decreasing later in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning in the W Atlantic and Significant Swell in the
Central and Western Atlantic.

A 1014mb low pressure system has formed off the SE U.S. coast
near 30N77W. A surface trough extends from the low to near Key
Largo, FL. A line of showers and thunderstorms is within 30 nm
ahead fo the boundary, reaching the northern Bahamas. Outside of
the gale force winds, fresh to strong SE winds are ahead of the
system from 26N to 31N and west of 65W. Elsewhere over the W
Atlantic waters, fresh E-SE winds, where seas are 6 to 10 ft in
NE swell.

A stationary front extends from 31N43W to 27N57W. Fresh E winds
prevail in the vicinity of the front, with rough seas north of
25N and west of 45W Fresh to locally strong NE winds are ahead
of the stationary front across the central and eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters, as shown by recent scatterometer
data. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in that region. Fresh to
strong winds and seas to 10 ft are in the deep tropics.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will
dissipate late tonight. The newly formed low off the SE U.S.
coast will move northeastward tonight into Mon and strengthen.
Gale-force winds will continue developing tonight into early Mon
morning N of 29N and between 65W and 75W. Winds will
diminish below gale force by Mon afternoon.

$$
Mora
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